Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/10 Game 1
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+69.7pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Seiichi Kondo, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +29.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +4.8 | +2.9 | -3.4 | -4.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 18,000 | 29% | 26% | 23% | 23% | +44.7 | -15.3 | -15.3 | -14.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 67% | 12% | 10% | 11% | -0.8 | +19.6 | -0.6 | -18.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 66% | 21% | 8% | 5% | -4.0 | +3.0 | +2.7 | -1.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 62% | 23% | 10% | 5% | -7.6 | +29.3 | -0.7 | -21.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 6,000 | 46% | 45% | 8% | 2% | -6.1 | +12.1 | -4.6 | -1.4 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 35% | 58% | 6% | 1% | -5.5 | +24.8 | -22.2 | +3.0 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 80% | 1% | 1% | -2.9 | -5.6 | -4.4 | +12.8 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 80% | 1% | 1% | +0.3 | -2.6 | +2.7 | -0.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 77% | 1% | 2% | +26.2 | -12.3 | -10.4 | -3.5 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 46% | 53% | 0% | 1% | -4.3 | +0.3 | +14.8 | -10.9 |
| South 1 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 42% | 57% | 1% | 0% | -8.3 | +8.5 | +0.1 | -0.3 |
| South 2 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 29% | 71% | 0% | 0% | -9.8 | +9.5 | -0.9 | +1.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 85% | 0% | 0% | -1.8 | -1.0 | +7.1 | -4.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 89% | 1% | 0% | -2.4 | +2.4 | -2.8 | +2.8 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 95% | 0% | 0% | -5.0 | -4.4 | -19.2 | +28.6 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 5% | 95% | 0% | 1% | -1.0 | -1.3 | -15.3 | +17.6 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 18,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 5% | 93% | 0% | 2% | -39.7 | -2.5 | +0.2 | +42.0 |
| South 4, 6 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 86% | 0% | 14% | -0.3 | +0.4 | +0.3 | -0.4 |
| South 4, 7 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 86% | 0% | 14% | +11.2 | +2.9 | -2.5 | -11.6 |