Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/10 Game 1
Sawazaki Makoto finished 1st (+69.7pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Sawazaki Makoto ron 12,000 from Kondo Seiichi, which moved Sawazaki Makoto's expected points by +26.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | +4.0 | +3.0 | -1.8 | -5.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 18,000 | 28% | 25% | 25% | 23% | +45.6 | -14.1 | -16.5 | -15.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 8,000 from Kondo Seiichi | 68% | 12% | 10% | 10% | -2.6 | +17.9 | +1.9 | -17.1 |
| East 2 | Draw | 64% | 20% | 10% | 6% | -2.6 | +5.5 | +0.3 | -3.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 12,000 from Kondo Seiichi | 61% | 24% | 10% | 5% | -5.9 | +26.5 | +0.5 | -21.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 6,000 | 46% | 44% | 9% | 1% | -7.5 | +15.9 | -7.3 | -1.1 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken | 33% | 61% | 4% | 2% | -4.7 | +21.7 | -18.9 | +1.8 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 79% | 1% | 1% | -2.4 | -6.3 | -5.5 | +14.3 |
| East 3 | Draw | 20% | 78% | 1% | 1% | -0.7 | -0.5 | +1.9 | -0.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 78% | 1% | 1% | +26.4 | -13.4 | -9.8 | -3.3 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,000 | 47% | 53% | 0% | 0% | -2.5 | -0.6 | +14.5 | -11.3 |
| South 1 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 2,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 45% | 54% | 0% | 0% | -11.2 | +10.2 | +1.5 | -0.5 |
| South 2 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 2,900 from Kurosawa Saki | 27% | 72% | 1% | 0% | -7.7 | +8.1 | -1.1 | +0.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 16% | 84% | 0% | 0% | -2.7 | 0.0 | +5.7 | -3.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 10% | 89% | 1% | 0% | -2.2 | +1.9 | -2.3 | +2.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 95% | 0% | 0% | -5.2 | -4.6 | -19.3 | +29.2 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken | 5% | 94% | 0% | 1% | -0.8 | -0.5 | -15.4 | +16.7 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 18,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 5% | 93% | 0% | 2% | -39.5 | -2.3 | -0.3 | +42.1 |
| South 4, 6 honba | Draw | 0% | 87% | 0% | 13% | -0.4 | -0.5 | +0.5 | +0.3 |
| South 4, 7 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 85% | 0% | 15% | +11.2 | +3.3 | -2.4 | -12.0 |