Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/10 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+65.4pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,800 from Sawazaki Makoto, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +23.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Murakami Jun | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +13.8 | -2.4 | -11.7 | +0.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Murakami Jun ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 35% | 23% | 19% | 24% | +1.4 | +1.4 | +6.3 | -9.1 |
| East 2 | Draw | 36% | 24% | 22% | 18% | +1.8 | +1.6 | +0.4 | -3.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Murakami Jun ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 37% | 24% | 22% | 17% | +1.4 | -23.3 | +24.5 | -2.7 |
| East 3 | Draw | 38% | 11% | 38% | 13% | +2.4 | +3.5 | -3.7 | -2.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 40% | 11% | 35% | 14% | -0.5 | -2.4 | +8.5 | -5.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,800 from Sawazaki Makoto | 37% | 10% | 43% | 9% | +23.3 | -17.0 | -7.1 | +0.7 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Draw | 62% | 3% | 28% | 6% | +2.8 | +2.0 | +2.8 | -7.6 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 6,000 | 64% | 3% | 29% | 4% | +14.1 | -4.0 | -8.1 | -2.1 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Draw | 80% | 2% | 16% | 3% | +2.0 | -4.4 | +1.1 | +1.4 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 81% | 1% | 15% | 2% | -7.7 | -9.3 | -4.4 | +21.4 |
| South 2 | Murakami Jun ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 77% | 1% | 15% | 7% | -0.4 | -1.6 | +15.8 | -13.7 |
| South 3 | Murakami Jun ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 75% | 0% | 22% | 3% | -4.0 | +1.1 | +10.0 | -7.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Murakami Jun | 65% | 0% | 34% | 1% | +9.5 | -2.4 | -16.7 | +9.5 |
| South 4 | Draw | 88% | 0% | 10% | 2% | +5.1 | +1.5 | -3.4 | -3.1 |