Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2019-20 Regular Season

12/10 Game 2

Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+65.4pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,800 from Sawazaki Makoto, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +23.3.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 1End● Kayamori Sayaka● Sawazaki Makoto● Murakami Jun● Setokuma Naoki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Kayamori● Sawazaki● Murakami● Setokuma
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultKayamori Sayaka
1st-place chance
Sawazaki Makoto
1st-place chance
Murakami Jun
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Kayamori Sayaka
Expected pt change
Sawazaki Makoto
Expected pt change
Murakami Jun
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
East 1Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Murakami Jun25%25%26%25%+13.8-2.4-11.7+0.3
East 1, 1 honbaMurakami Jun ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki35%23%19%24%+1.4+1.4+6.3-9.1
East 2Draw36%24%22%18%+1.8+1.6+0.4-3.9
East 2, 1 honbaMurakami Jun ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto37%24%22%17%+1.4-23.3+24.5-2.7
East 3Draw38%11%38%13%+2.4+3.5-3.7-2.2
East 4, 1 honbaDraw40%11%35%14%-0.5-2.4+8.5-5.6
South 1, 2 honbaKayamori Sayaka ron 5,800 from Sawazaki Makoto37%10%43%9%+23.3-17.0-7.1+0.7
South 1, 3 honbaDraw62%3%28%6%+2.8+2.0+2.8-7.6
South 1, 4 honbaKayamori Sayaka tsumo 6,00064%3%29%4%+14.1-4.0-8.1-2.1
South 1, 5 honbaDraw80%2%16%3%+2.0-4.4+1.1+1.4
South 1, 6 honbaSetokuma Naoki tsumo 8,00081%1%15%2%-7.7-9.3-4.4+21.4
South 2Murakami Jun ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki77%1%15%7%-0.4-1.6+15.8-13.7
South 3Murakami Jun ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki75%0%22%3%-4.0+1.1+10.0-7.1
South 3, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Murakami Jun65%0%34%1%+9.5-2.4-16.7+9.5
South 4Draw88%0%10%2%+5.1+1.5-3.4-3.1

All 2019-20 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)