Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/10 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+65.4pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,800 from Makoto Sawazaki, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +24.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Jun Murakami | 24% | 25% | 24% | 27% | +17.5 | -1.4 | -12.3 | -3.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Jun Murakami ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 37% | 23% | 17% | 23% | -1.7 | +0.8 | +8.1 | -7.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 24% | 21% | 20% | +2.7 | +1.7 | +1.3 | -5.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 38% | 25% | 22% | 16% | +1.2 | -23.9 | +23.9 | -1.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 10% | 38% | 15% | +1.8 | +4.5 | -2.8 | -3.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 13% | 36% | 13% | +0.4 | -2.3 | +7.2 | -5.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,800 from Makoto Sawazaki | 38% | 11% | 42% | 9% | +24.6 | -18.3 | -6.3 | 0.0 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 64% | 3% | 27% | 6% | +0.4 | +2.5 | +3.3 | -6.2 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 6,000 | 63% | 3% | 30% | 4% | +15.8 | -2.0 | -9.0 | -4.8 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 81% | 2% | 15% | 2% | +1.1 | -6.7 | +2.1 | +3.6 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 82% | 1% | 15% | 2% | -8.5 | -9.0 | -4.3 | +21.8 |
| South 2 | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 76% | 1% | 16% | 7% | +0.4 | -1.8 | +16.8 | -15.4 |
| South 3 | Jun Murakami ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 74% | 0% | 24% | 2% | -4.5 | +1.5 | +8.4 | -5.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Jun Murakami | 64% | 0% | 34% | 2% | +10.8 | -3.0 | -17.4 | +9.7 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 88% | 0% | 9% | 2% | +4.6 | +1.8 | -2.7 | -3.7 |