Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/13 Game 2
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+77.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Makoto Sawazaki ron 18,000 from Taro Suzuki, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +69.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 2,700 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -7.3 | -4.0 | +11.2 | +0.2 |
| East 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 19% | 22% | 34% | 25% | -16.8 | -3.4 | +21.2 | -1.0 |
| East 3 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 17% | 51% | 22% | +20.3 | -4.6 | -12.4 | -3.3 |
| East 4 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 3,000 | 21% | 17% | 40% | 22% | -3.0 | -3.5 | -0.2 | +6.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 14% | 41% | 26% | -4.0 | +4.1 | -4.5 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 17% | 36% | 29% | -6.2 | +31.7 | -7.9 | -17.7 |
| South 1 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 40% | 28% | 17% | -16.9 | -7.2 | +29.9 | -5.8 |
| South 2 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 2,000 | 3% | 27% | 60% | 10% | -3.4 | -4.4 | +10.3 | -2.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 17% | 75% | 7% | -4.9 | +7.3 | -1.3 | -1.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 18% | 77% | 6% | -5.4 | -4.5 | -4.4 | +14.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 18,000 from Taro Suzuki | 0% | 16% | 72% | 12% | +8.9 | -53.4 | -25.3 | +69.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 0% | 0% | 6% | 94% | -22.8 | +10.4 | -2.3 | +14.7 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -0.9 | -0.2 | +2.0 | -1.0 |