Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/19 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+51.1pt). The game was decided in East 3: Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +32.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | +3.1 | +3.4 | +0.4 | -6.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 6,000 | 27% | 27% | 26% | 19% | +22.7 | -9.7 | -3.7 | -9.3 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 43% | 20% | 22% | 15% | -3.0 | -0.4 | -15.6 | +19.1 |
| East 2 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 8,000 | 42% | 19% | 13% | 26% | -3.5 | -10.8 | +22.5 | -8.1 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 39% | 14% | 26% | 21% | +32.6 | 0.0 | -2.3 | -30.2 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 1,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 71% | 8% | 16% | 5% | +4.5 | +1.4 | -1.5 | -4.3 |
| South 1 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 78% | 8% | 12% | 3% | +1.7 | -2.3 | +3.4 | -2.7 |
| South 2 | Kanako Maruyama ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 82% | 5% | 11% | 3% | -1.1 | +30.9 | -30.9 | +1.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 79% | 16% | 4% | 1% | +8.9 | -5.5 | -1.0 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 5,200 | 92% | 5% | 2% | 1% | +10.2 | -0.1 | -5.3 | -4.7 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 18,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -26.0 | +0.9 | -14.8 | +39.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 81% | 9% | 0% | 10% | -3.4 | -1.0 | -1.2 | +5.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 3,900 | 74% | 13% | 0% | 13% | -4.4 | -12.8 | -2.5 | +19.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 69% | 10% | 0% | 21% | +0.5 | -6.0 | +1.1 | +4.4 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,500 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 67% | 7% | 0% | 25% | -10.7 | -3.1 | -3.8 | +17.5 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000 | 43% | 2% | 0% | 55% | +20.4 | -25.4 | +33.7 | -28.8 |