Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/19 Game 2
Kotaro Uchikawa finished 1st (+58.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,000 from Jun Murakami, which moved Kotaro Uchikawa's expected points by +22.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 26% | 23% | 25% | -3.5 | -4.2 | +8.5 | -0.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 23% | 23% | 29% | 25% | +26.4 | -24.5 | -1.2 | -0.7 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 9% | 26% | 22% | +1.8 | +0.9 | -3.5 | +0.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 44% | 10% | 23% | 23% | +20.1 | -1.7 | -14.1 | -4.2 |
| East 4 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 5,200 | 65% | 7% | 11% | 16% | -1.1 | -3.4 | +13.3 | -8.8 |
| South 1 | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 64% | 6% | 18% | 11% | +4.1 | +20.1 | -23.6 | -0.6 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 74% | 10% | 7% | 9% | -2.8 | +4.0 | +1.5 | -2.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 70% | 12% | 9% | 9% | -2.6 | +7.1 | -1.2 | -3.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Jun Murakami ron 7,700 from Naoki Setokuma | 67% | 17% | 8% | 8% | -29.0 | +33.0 | -2.7 | -1.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 29% | 53% | 8% | 10% | -1.6 | +2.4 | +22.3 | -23.1 |
| South 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 3,900 | 25% | 56% | 15% | 3% | -5.1 | -6.7 | +13.9 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 23% | 47% | 27% | 3% | -18.3 | -2.3 | +21.2 | -0.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 40% | 49% | 2% | -3.5 | -2.8 | +3.1 | +3.2 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,000 from Jun Murakami | 5% | 35% | 57% | 3% | -2.8 | -13.4 | +22.5 | -6.3 |