Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/19 Game 2
Uchikawa Kotaro finished 1st (+58.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Uchikawa Kotaro ron 2,000 from Murakami Jun, which moved Uchikawa Kotaro's expected points by +24.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -2.8 | -3.4 | +5.8 | +0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Murakami Jun | 22% | 23% | 29% | 25% | +24.7 | -23.1 | -0.3 | -1.3 |
| East 3 | Draw | 40% | 11% | 28% | 22% | +1.9 | -1.8 | -1.3 | +1.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 43% | 9% | 26% | 23% | +23.2 | -1.0 | -18.6 | -3.6 |
| East 4 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 5,200 | 66% | 6% | 11% | 17% | -0.6 | -3.5 | +14.9 | -10.8 |
| South 1 | Murakami Jun ron 8,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 68% | 6% | 16% | 10% | +2.8 | +20.6 | -25.1 | +1.7 |
| South 2 | Draw | 75% | 10% | 6% | 9% | -3.7 | +5.1 | +3.3 | -4.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 70% | 13% | 8% | 9% | -3.4 | +7.3 | -2.0 | -1.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Murakami Jun ron 7,700 from Setokuma Naoki | 65% | 18% | 8% | 10% | -28.7 | +33.1 | -2.2 | -2.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 28% | 54% | 8% | 9% | +0.8 | -2.1 | +23.8 | -22.4 |
| South 3 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 3,900 | 27% | 53% | 17% | 3% | -7.2 | -4.9 | +14.7 | -2.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 23% | 46% | 29% | 3% | -17.9 | -0.9 | +17.9 | +0.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 9% | 41% | 47% | 3% | -2.4 | -2.1 | +3.0 | +1.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 2,000 from Murakami Jun | 6% | 37% | 54% | 3% | -4.1 | -14.2 | +24.0 | -5.7 |