Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/20 Game 1
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+54.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kayamori Sayaka ron 7,700 from Katsumata Kenji, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +31.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Okada Sayaka ron 1,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 25% | 26% | 24% | 24% | -2.7 | -1.3 | +2.7 | +1.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 23% | 25% | 26% | 26% | +2.1 | +4.2 | -6.5 | +0.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 25% | 26% | 23% | 27% | -4.3 | +3.8 | +3.6 | -3.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 21% | 31% | 25% | 24% | -21.2 | -3.4 | -3.8 | +28.4 |
| East 3 | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,000 from Okada Sayaka | 10% | 24% | 21% | 45% | -1.7 | +8.9 | -7.9 | +0.6 |
| East 4 | Draw | 9% | 33% | 14% | 45% | +1.5 | +3.4 | -1.3 | -3.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Mizuhara Akina | 10% | 35% | 14% | 41% | -17.0 | +19.4 | -3.1 | +0.8 |
| South 2 | Draw | 1% | 54% | 8% | 37% | -1.7 | +7.9 | +0.4 | -6.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 1% | 64% | 8% | 27% | -3.8 | -25.2 | +22.7 | +6.3 |
| South 3 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 6,400 | 1% | 36% | 22% | 41% | +9.6 | +3.0 | -14.3 | +1.7 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 7,700 from Katsumata Kenji | 2% | 41% | 11% | 46% | +2.3 | -41.0 | +7.1 | +31.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 94% | +40.5 | -22.2 | -15.6 | -2.7 |