Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/20 Game 1
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+54.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Sayaka Kayamori ron 7,700 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +31.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 24% | 26% | 25% | 26% | -4.0 | -0.5 | +4.7 | -0.1 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 25% | 28% | 26% | +3.9 | +3.5 | -8.9 | +1.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 28% | 21% | 27% | -2.8 | +4.0 | +2.5 | -3.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 21% | 31% | 24% | 24% | -23.6 | -2.9 | -0.6 | +27.1 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Sayaka Okada | 9% | 26% | 21% | 44% | -1.1 | +8.1 | -9.6 | +2.6 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 31% | 13% | 48% | +4.5 | +1.6 | -0.8 | -5.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 11% | 33% | 14% | 42% | -18.6 | +21.8 | -3.0 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 54% | 9% | 35% | -1.4 | +6.9 | -1.6 | -3.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 1% | 63% | 8% | 28% | -3.4 | -24.9 | +22.5 | +5.9 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 6,400 | 1% | 35% | 20% | 44% | +8.2 | +3.5 | -13.1 | +1.4 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 7,700 from Kenji Katsumata | 2% | 41% | 11% | 46% | +3.5 | -42.4 | +7.1 | +31.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 96% | +40.2 | -21.3 | -15.2 | -3.6 |