Game · 2019-20 Semifinals
3/16 Game 2
Sawazaki Makoto finished 1st (+59.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 3 honba: Sawazaki Makoto ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki, which moved Sawazaki Makoto's expected points by +32.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +1.7 | +2.4 | -7.2 | +3.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 27% | 27% | 20% | 26% | -3.9 | +1.0 | +5.9 | -2.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 1,000 from Kondo Seiichi | 22% | 29% | 23% | 26% | +5.1 | -4.2 | -0.9 | 0.0 |
| East 3 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 5,200 from Ooi Takaharu | 28% | 23% | 24% | 25% | +16.8 | -1.8 | -2.4 | -12.6 |
| East 4 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 41% | 21% | 20% | 17% | +23.8 | +1.7 | 0.0 | -25.5 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 65% | 16% | 15% | 4% | -11.9 | -5.8 | +22.7 | -5.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 51% | 15% | 31% | 3% | +6.0 | -6.6 | +1.3 | -0.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,900 from Ooi Takaharu | 62% | 7% | 28% | 3% | -2.6 | 0.0 | +9.0 | -6.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,500 | 55% | 6% | 38% | 1% | -4.9 | -2.8 | +7.1 | +0.6 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 45% | 5% | 48% | 2% | +32.3 | +0.2 | -30.8 | -1.6 |
| South 4 | Draw | 97% | 1% | 2% | 1% | +2.2 | -2.0 | -2.6 | +2.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 5,800 from Sawazaki Makoto | 98% | 0% | 1% | 1% | -9.1 | -1.5 | +0.4 | +10.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 92% | 1% | 3% | 4% | +3.5 | +25.5 | -20.5 | -8.5 |