Game · 2019-20 Semifinal Series
3/16 Game 2
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+59.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 3 honba: Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +32.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 26% | 26% | 24% | +4.6 | +2.1 | -8.8 | +2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 28% | 20% | 25% | -5.1 | +1.6 | +5.3 | -1.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 22% | 28% | 23% | 26% | +7.8 | -7.7 | -0.9 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 5,200 from Takaharu Ooi | 29% | 23% | 24% | 25% | +15.5 | +1.8 | -2.4 | -14.9 |
| East 4 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 41% | 23% | 20% | 17% | +24.7 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -23.9 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 67% | 15% | 14% | 4% | -10.4 | -7.1 | +22.6 | -5.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 13% | 29% | 3% | +4.5 | -4.2 | +1.3 | -1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,900 from Takaharu Ooi | 64% | 7% | 27% | 3% | -3.1 | -1.5 | +9.9 | -5.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,500 | 56% | 4% | 38% | 2% | -5.9 | -1.9 | +7.8 | 0.0 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 44% | 4% | 50% | 2% | +32.4 | +0.9 | -32.6 | -0.7 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 96% | 1% | 2% | 1% | +1.8 | -2.4 | -1.5 | +2.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 5,800 from Makoto Sawazaki | 97% | 0% | 1% | 1% | -9.0 | -1.6 | +0.3 | +10.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 91% | 1% | 4% | 4% | +4.0 | +25.8 | -20.5 | -9.3 |