Game · 2019-20 Semifinals
3/19 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+67.2pt). The game was decided in South 4: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +17.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Asakura Koshin 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Asakura Koshin Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -32.5 | 0.0 | +0.6 | +31.8 |
| East 2 | Draw | 6% | 22% | 23% | 49% | -0.1 | +4.1 | -1.3 | -2.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 2,600 from Asakura Koshin | 7% | 25% | 22% | 46% | +8.6 | -0.1 | -10.3 | +1.8 |
| East 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 5,200 | 9% | 24% | 18% | 49% | -3.5 | +13.4 | -8.7 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 4,000 | 9% | 34% | 11% | 46% | -4.1 | +14.4 | -2.4 | -7.9 |
| South 1 | Draw | 6% | 50% | 9% | 36% | +7.0 | -3.3 | -1.5 | -2.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 9% | 46% | 10% | 36% | +2.1 | +4.7 | -1.9 | -4.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 1,500 from Sasaki Hisato | 10% | 51% | 9% | 30% | +11.4 | -7.5 | -3.7 | -0.2 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Draw | 15% | 44% | 8% | 32% | -6.5 | +9.4 | -3.7 | +0.8 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 3,900 from Asakura Koshin | 8% | 55% | 6% | 31% | +18.4 | -1.9 | -12.6 | -3.8 |
| South 3 | Draw | 17% | 54% | 3% | 26% | -1.3 | +1.7 | 0.0 | -0.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,300 from Okada Sayaka | 15% | 57% | 3% | 25% | -10.9 | +14.4 | -5.1 | +1.6 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 81% | 0% | 16% | -7.6 | +17.5 | -2.2 | -7.7 |