Game · 2019-20 Semifinal Series
3/19 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+67.2pt). The game was decided in South 4: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +17.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | -31.7 | +0.4 | +1.3 | +30.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 21% | 24% | 48% | -1.4 | +4.3 | -4.1 | +1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,600 from Koshin Asakura | 7% | 23% | 21% | 49% | +9.1 | +0.1 | -9.3 | +0.1 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 5,200 | 11% | 23% | 16% | 51% | -5.3 | +14.9 | -6.1 | -3.5 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 8% | 34% | 11% | 46% | -2.4 | +14.2 | -5.0 | -6.8 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 49% | 9% | 35% | +7.0 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -3.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 49% | 9% | 33% | +2.2 | +3.6 | -3.1 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 1,500 from Hisato Sasaki | 10% | 52% | 7% | 31% | +9.8 | -7.7 | -1.9 | -0.2 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 45% | 8% | 33% | -4.7 | +9.4 | -3.0 | -1.7 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Koshin Asakura | 9% | 57% | 6% | 29% | +16.1 | -1.7 | -12.2 | -2.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 56% | 4% | 25% | -0.7 | +0.6 | -0.8 | +0.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,300 from Sayaka Okada | 15% | 57% | 3% | 26% | -9.7 | +15.1 | -5.2 | -0.1 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 81% | 0% | 14% | -8.4 | +17.2 | -2.3 | -6.6 |