Game · 2019-20 Semifinals
3/21 Game 1
Sawazaki Makoto finished 1st (+51.9pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Sawazaki Makoto ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki, which moved Sawazaki Makoto's expected points by +16.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 28% | 23% | 23% | -7.7 | -4.4 | +0.7 | +11.5 |
| East 2 | Shiratori Sho ron 1,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 21% | 23% | 26% | 31% | -0.2 | -0.7 | +0.8 | +0.1 |
| East 3 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 21% | 25% | 33% | -9.6 | -14.3 | +35.5 | -11.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 2,000 from Shiratori Sho | 13% | 12% | 55% | 20% | -0.5 | +0.5 | -8.5 | +8.5 |
| East 4 | Draw | 13% | 13% | 47% | 28% | -6.2 | -0.3 | 0.0 | +6.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Shiratori Sho | 11% | 12% | 46% | 32% | -4.0 | +29.8 | -23.2 | -2.7 |
| South 1 | Draw | 10% | 32% | 26% | 31% | +3.0 | -5.2 | -4.1 | +6.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 3,900 | 12% | 28% | 24% | 37% | +16.5 | -2.9 | -9.1 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 20% | 27% | 19% | 35% | -17.6 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +16.9 |
| South 2 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 1,500 | 8% | 24% | 16% | 52% | -2.8 | -3.8 | -2.5 | +9.1 |
| South 3 | Draw | 5% | 16% | 14% | 65% | +4.3 | -6.4 | +5.1 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 7% | 13% | 18% | 61% | -4.9 | +8.4 | -10.0 | +6.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 6% | 14% | 7% | 74% | -17.7 | -16.5 | +24.0 | +10.2 |