Game · 2019-20 Semifinal Series
3/21 Game 1
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+51.9pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +18.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -6.5 | -3.0 | -2.5 | +12.0 |
| East 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 1,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 20% | 23% | 23% | 34% | +0.5 | -3.2 | +4.9 | -2.1 |
| East 3 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 20% | 26% | 33% | -9.6 | -12.8 | +32.5 | -10.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 13% | 11% | 53% | 23% | -2.6 | +0.8 | -6.7 | +8.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 13% | 47% | 28% | -4.1 | +1.1 | -0.7 | +3.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 11% | 12% | 46% | 31% | -4.8 | +29.3 | -23.2 | -1.4 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 33% | 26% | 31% | +2.5 | -3.9 | -4.6 | +6.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 3,900 | 11% | 30% | 23% | 36% | +17.5 | -4.3 | -8.7 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 20% | 28% | 18% | 34% | -16.6 | -1.4 | -0.8 | +18.8 |
| South 2 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 1,500 | 8% | 23% | 16% | 53% | -3.2 | -4.0 | -2.0 | +9.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 14% | 13% | 67% | +4.7 | -4.7 | +4.1 | -4.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 13% | 16% | 63% | -8.2 | +9.0 | -6.4 | +5.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 5% | 15% | 8% | 73% | -16.0 | -17.1 | +22.6 | +10.5 |