Game · 2019-20 Semifinal Series
3/21 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+71.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,000, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +33.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -3.6 | +6.3 | -1.4 | -1.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 3,000 | 22% | 30% | 24% | 24% | -3.8 | +11.9 | -3.3 | -4.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 7,700 from Sho Shiratori | 19% | 40% | 21% | 20% | -2.2 | +21.0 | +0.4 | -19.2 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 58% | 18% | 9% | +5.1 | -3.6 | +1.0 | -2.5 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 57% | 18% | 8% | -0.2 | -3.1 | +5.4 | -2.1 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 17% | 52% | 22% | 8% | -1.7 | +28.1 | -6.1 | -20.4 |
| East 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,200 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 8% | 80% | 9% | 2% | +12.0 | +0.3 | -9.6 | -2.8 |
| South 1 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 82% | 6% | 1% | +27.3 | -12.2 | -9.3 | -5.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 1,500 | 35% | 61% | 3% | 0% | -5.0 | +5.7 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 27% | 70% | 2% | 0% | +18.2 | -8.0 | -0.1 | -10.0 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 3,200 from Sho Shiratori | 47% | 51% | 1% | 0% | -7.7 | +12.4 | -1.3 | -3.4 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,000 | 28% | 72% | 0% | 0% | +33.1 | -29.8 | +0.1 | -3.4 |