Game · 2019-20 Semifinal Series
3/23 Game 1
Seiichi Kondo finished 1st (+78.9pt). The game was decided in East 4, 5 honba: Seiichi Kondo ron 18,000 from Akina Mizuhara, which moved Seiichi Kondo's expected points by +47.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yudai Maehara 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Yudai Maehara Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 24% | 24% | -3.5 | +6.2 | -1.8 | -0.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 29% | 25% | 23% | -3.0 | -4.9 | +4.1 | +3.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 7,700 from Akina Mizuhara | 20% | 26% | 28% | 27% | -3.6 | -22.8 | +29.5 | -3.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Yudai Maehara | 17% | 11% | 51% | 22% | -27.9 | +1.0 | +28.7 | -1.8 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 6% | 79% | 12% | +5.1 | -2.8 | -1.8 | -0.5 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 18,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 4% | 5% | 79% | 12% | +0.1 | -36.9 | -10.1 | +47.0 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,300 from Makoto Sawazaki | 2% | 0% | 53% | 45% | -0.5 | +4.3 | -4.2 | +0.3 |
| South 1 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 2,700 | 2% | 1% | 50% | 47% | -4.4 | -1.2 | +9.0 | -3.3 |
| South 2 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,600 from Yudai Maehara | 0% | 1% | 61% | 38% | -1.0 | -1.7 | +6.2 | -3.5 |
| South 3 | Seiichi Kondo ron 2,600 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 0% | 71% | 29% | +1.4 | -0.7 | -4.9 | +4.2 |
| South 4 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 68% | 32% | -3.5 | -4.7 | -30.4 | +38.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 0% | 3% | 98% | -17.5 | +27.5 | -9.5 | -0.4 |