Game · 2019-20 Semifinal Series
3/26 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+52.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +59.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 7,800 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 24% | +19.5 | -7.3 | -5.3 | -6.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,600 from Hisato Sasaki | 39% | 21% | 21% | 19% | -2.0 | +9.9 | +0.7 | -8.6 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 4,800 from Hisato Sasaki | 37% | 26% | 21% | 16% | -1.0 | +16.7 | -2.0 | -13.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 5,200 | 34% | 38% | 18% | 9% | -2.5 | -6.0 | -3.2 | +11.7 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 35% | 33% | 18% | 14% | -1.6 | -0.1 | -8.1 | +9.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 35% | 13% | 20% | -1.0 | +5.9 | -2.1 | -2.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 32% | 40% | 12% | 16% | -2.6 | +0.6 | +26.3 | -24.3 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,300 from Seiichi Kondo | 28% | 39% | 26% | 7% | +7.2 | +2.3 | -5.1 | -4.3 |
| South 3 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 6,000 | 34% | 41% | 20% | 4% | -10.7 | -15.0 | +28.3 | -2.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Sayaka Okada | 24% | 25% | 48% | 4% | -11.7 | +0.9 | +7.0 | +3.8 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 18% | 62% | 5% | +59.0 | -22.0 | -24.6 | -12.4 |