Game · 2019-20 Semifinals
3/26 Game 1
Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+52.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +59.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 7,800 | 24% | 26% | 25% | 26% | +23.3 | -9.8 | -7.2 | -6.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,600 from Sasaki Hisato | 41% | 20% | 20% | 20% | -2.7 | +13.3 | 0.0 | -10.6 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 4,800 from Sasaki Hisato | 38% | 28% | 19% | 15% | -5.2 | +15.5 | +2.6 | -12.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 5,200 | 33% | 39% | 20% | 8% | +0.1 | -8.0 | -6.7 | +14.6 |
| East 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 4,000 | 34% | 32% | 18% | 16% | +0.8 | -0.6 | -8.2 | +8.0 |
| East 4 | Draw | 35% | 34% | 12% | 19% | -2.2 | +8.5 | -2.1 | -4.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 33% | 40% | 11% | 17% | -2.4 | +0.1 | +26.4 | -24.2 |
| South 2 | Okada Sayaka ron 1,300 from Kondo Seiichi | 29% | 40% | 24% | 7% | +6.1 | +0.5 | -4.8 | -1.7 |
| South 3 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 6,000 | 33% | 40% | 20% | 6% | -7.9 | -15.4 | +28.3 | -5.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Okada Sayaka | 27% | 22% | 47% | 5% | -14.6 | +2.8 | +7.3 | +4.5 |
| South 4 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 20% | 62% | 6% | +59.4 | -22.3 | -24.4 | -12.8 |