Game · 2020-21 Final Series
5/10 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+57.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kenji Katsumata ron 18,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +57.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -18.5 | -7.0 | +30.7 | -5.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 19% | 49% | 20% | 0.0 | +1.1 | +3.2 | -4.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Kanako Maruyama | 13% | 18% | 52% | 17% | -3.7 | -5.6 | +8.4 | +0.9 |
| East 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 13% | 62% | 15% | +23.7 | -5.3 | -9.1 | -9.3 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,500 from Sayaka Okada | 21% | 13% | 54% | 13% | +2.4 | -1.9 | -7.6 | +7.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 3,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 26% | 12% | 46% | 16% | +0.1 | -0.2 | +13.5 | -13.4 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 10% | 61% | 8% | -15.8 | -5.5 | -3.6 | +24.9 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 9% | 59% | 20% | -4.1 | -13.1 | +23.8 | -6.7 |
| South 3 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 1% | 90% | 8% | -15.8 | +40.0 | -10.5 | -13.7 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 18,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 1% | 7% | 85% | 7% | -29.3 | -12.2 | -16.2 | +57.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 3,900 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 5% | 46% | 50% | +4.2 | -3.6 | -21.0 | +20.4 |