Game · 2020-21 Finals
5/10 Game 1
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+57.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Katsumata Kenji ron 18,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +57.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Maruyama Kanako 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Maruyama Kanako Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -18.0 | -5.4 | +30.8 | -7.4 |
| East 2 | Draw | 13% | 18% | 51% | 18% | -2.8 | +1.1 | +3.0 | -1.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 1,000 from Maruyama Kanako | 12% | 19% | 52% | 17% | 0.0 | -6.3 | +8.1 | -1.8 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 13% | 63% | 14% | +23.2 | -5.8 | -10.7 | -6.7 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 1,500 from Okada Sayaka | 23% | 12% | 52% | 13% | -0.1 | +0.6 | -7.0 | +6.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 3,200 from Katsumata Kenji | 25% | 13% | 45% | 18% | -0.9 | +0.2 | +13.0 | -12.3 |
| South 1 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 11% | 60% | 8% | -13.6 | -8.0 | -1.5 | +23.0 |
| South 2 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 8% | 60% | 20% | -4.7 | -13.8 | +22.4 | -3.9 |
| South 3 | Maruyama Kanako tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 0% | 89% | 9% | -15.5 | +41.8 | -10.8 | -15.5 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 18,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 1% | 8% | 83% | 8% | -29.4 | -12.6 | -15.3 | +57.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 3,900 from Okada Sayaka | 0% | 5% | 46% | 50% | +4.3 | -3.5 | -21.0 | +20.2 |