Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2020-21 Finals

5/11 Game 1

Hinata Aiko finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000, which moved Hinata Aiko's expected points by +38.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Hinata Aiko● Murakami Jun● Nikaido Aki● Sawazaki Makoto0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Hinata● Murakami● Nikaido● Sawazaki
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMurakami Jun
1st-place chance
Nikaido Aki
1st-place chance
Hinata Aiko
1st-place chance
Sawazaki Makoto
1st-place chance
Murakami Jun
Expected pt change
Nikaido Aki
Expected pt change
Hinata Aiko
Expected pt change
Sawazaki Makoto
Expected pt change
East 1Draw24%25%25%26%-3.4-1.9+7.5-2.1
East 2, 1 honbaNikaido Aki ron 7,700 from Sawazaki Makoto21%25%30%24%+0.2+24.0-1.1-23.1
East 2, 2 honbaDraw20%42%26%11%+6.5-5.1-1.2-0.2
East 3, 3 honbaDraw25%36%27%12%-3.0-0.8+1.8+2.0
East 3, 4 honbaDraw24%36%27%13%-1.5+2.4+1.9-2.7
East 4, 5 honbaHinata Aiko ron 2,000 from Nikaido Aki22%39%28%11%-0.5-12.1+17.9-5.3
South 1Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 8,00020%27%46%7%-15.0-5.3-2.2+22.5
South 2Murakami Jun tsumo 8,00011%25%46%19%+32.4-17.9-6.7-7.8
South 3Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,00035%13%37%15%-18.1-10.7+38.9-10.1
South 3, 1 honbaHinata Aiko tsumo 6,0007%1%86%6%-4.5-1.7+11.6-5.4
South 3, 2 honbaDraw2%0%96%2%-2.0+4.2-1.5-0.7
South 4, 3 honbaSawazaki Makoto ron 5,800 from Hinata Aiko0%0%97%3%-5.3-12.4-10.1+27.8
South 4, 4 honbaMurakami Jun ron 5,200 from Nikaido Aki1%0%91%8%+21.9-13.6+4.3-12.6

All 2020-21 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)