Game · 2020-21 Final Series
5/11 Game 1
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +38.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -7.0 | +1.1 | +8.8 | -2.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 7,700 from Makoto Sawazaki | 21% | 25% | 31% | 23% | +0.5 | +25.5 | -2.5 | -23.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 44% | 26% | 11% | +6.5 | -4.0 | -2.0 | -0.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 40% | 25% | 11% | -3.1 | -5.2 | +5.5 | +2.8 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 35% | 30% | 12% | +1.8 | +3.2 | -1.4 | -3.6 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 23% | 39% | 28% | 10% | -2.4 | -12.6 | +18.1 | -3.1 |
| South 1 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 26% | 46% | 8% | -16.7 | -3.5 | -2.4 | +22.6 |
| South 2 | Jun Murakami tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 25% | 45% | 19% | +33.7 | -18.4 | -6.2 | -9.0 |
| South 3 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 36% | 13% | 36% | 16% | -17.4 | -10.9 | +38.2 | -10.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 6,000 | 7% | 2% | 85% | 6% | -5.1 | -1.0 | +12.5 | -6.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 0% | 96% | 2% | -1.0 | +2.9 | -1.7 | -0.2 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 5,800 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | -6.1 | -12.6 | -9.6 | +28.3 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Jun Murakami ron 5,200 from Aki Nikaido | 1% | 0% | 91% | 8% | +21.8 | -12.9 | +4.1 | -13.1 |