Game · 2020-21 Final Series
5/14 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+53.9pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kenji Katsumata ron 4,500 from Taro Suzuki, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +35.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 27% | 24% | 25% | -17.7 | -8.8 | -7.0 | +33.5 |
| East 2 | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 12% | 18% | 18% | 52% | +3.3 | -2.6 | -21.7 | +21.0 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 11% | 6% | 73% | -8.3 | +31.9 | -15.3 | -8.4 |
| East 4 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 30% | 3% | 60% | -12.1 | -4.7 | +27.1 | -10.4 |
| South 1 | Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 5% | 31% | 10% | 54% | +30.2 | +6.8 | -0.6 | -36.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 45% | 14% | 21% | -4.7 | +8.7 | 0.0 | -4.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 3,900 from Shingo Hori | 14% | 55% | 13% | 19% | -18.8 | +1.4 | +16.1 | +1.4 |
| South 3 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 6,000 | 5% | 60% | 18% | 17% | -5.6 | -9.0 | +23.5 | -8.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 45% | 38% | 14% | -10.8 | -6.7 | -22.8 | +40.2 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 4,500 from Taro Suzuki | 1% | 35% | 16% | 48% | -2.1 | +35.7 | -16.2 | -17.3 |