Game · 2020-21 Finals
5/14 Game 1
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+53.9pt). The game was decided in South 4: Katsumata Kenji ron 4,500 from Suzuki Taro, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +35.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -17.9 | -8.3 | -6.1 | +32.3 |
| East 2 | Hinata Aiko ron 8,000 from Suzuki Taro | 13% | 18% | 20% | 50% | +0.7 | -2.1 | -21.7 | +23.1 |
| East 3 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 11% | 7% | 74% | -6.2 | +31.4 | -18.7 | -6.5 |
| East 4 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 29% | 2% | 63% | -12.4 | -3.4 | +28.8 | -13.0 |
| South 1 | Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko | 5% | 32% | 10% | 53% | +32.1 | +5.2 | -1.7 | -35.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 44% | 13% | 22% | -7.8 | +6.5 | +3.1 | -1.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Suzuki Taro ron 3,900 from Hori Shingo | 14% | 51% | 14% | 21% | -16.6 | +3.5 | +14.7 | -1.6 |
| South 3 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 6,000 | 6% | 59% | 18% | 18% | -5.8 | -8.5 | +22.0 | -7.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 44% | 37% | 14% | -11.4 | -6.4 | -22.1 | +40.0 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 4,500 from Suzuki Taro | 1% | 35% | 15% | 49% | -2.3 | +35.9 | -16.3 | -17.3 |