Game · 2020-21 Finals
5/17 Game 1
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+67.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +34.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -3.4 | -1.6 | -2.6 | +7.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Murakami Jun ron 5,200 from Katsumata Kenji | 20% | 25% | 24% | 31% | +19.5 | -2.8 | -16.4 | -0.4 |
| East 3 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 36% | 19% | 14% | 31% | -11.4 | -11.2 | +34.3 | -11.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 3,000 | 26% | 14% | 37% | 23% | -3.9 | -3.1 | +11.8 | -4.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 23% | 12% | 47% | 18% | +0.3 | +1.3 | -0.5 | -1.1 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 23% | 13% | 47% | 18% | -0.8 | -23.1 | +26.4 | -2.5 |
| South 1 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 4,000 | 13% | 3% | 76% | 8% | -8.0 | -4.0 | +0.6 | +11.5 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 5,200 | 6% | 2% | 79% | 13% | -1.1 | -7.6 | +11.7 | -3.0 |
| South 3 | Ooi Takaharu ron 1,300 from Katsumata Kenji | 1% | 0% | 93% | 6% | -0.2 | +0.2 | -1.3 | +1.3 |
| South 4 | Murakami Jun ron 5,200 from Ooi Takaharu | 0% | 0% | 95% | 5% | +17.4 | -6.0 | +2.7 | -14.0 |