Game · 2020-21 Final Series
5/17 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+67.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +33.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -4.7 | -1.4 | -0.1 | +6.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Jun Murakami ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 20% | 24% | 26% | 30% | +20.3 | -2.0 | -18.1 | -0.2 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 20% | 14% | 29% | -12.2 | -9.3 | +33.7 | -12.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,000 | 27% | 15% | 37% | 21% | -3.3 | -5.9 | +12.1 | -2.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 12% | 46% | 19% | -0.5 | +1.3 | +1.0 | -1.9 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 23% | 12% | 47% | 18% | -1.2 | -23.0 | +25.7 | -1.5 |
| South 1 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 4,000 | 12% | 3% | 76% | 9% | -6.2 | -5.4 | +1.3 | +10.3 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 5,200 | 7% | 1% | 80% | 12% | -2.6 | -6.4 | +11.8 | -2.7 |
| South 3 | Takaharu Ooi ron 1,300 from Kenji Katsumata | 1% | 0% | 94% | 5% | 0.0 | +1.2 | -2.1 | +0.9 |
| South 4 | Jun Murakami ron 5,200 from Takaharu Ooi | 0% | 0% | 95% | 5% | +17.4 | -6.2 | +2.6 | -13.8 |