Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
1/3 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+63.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +37.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -13.5 | +22.6 | -6.2 | -2.9 |
| East 2 | Kanako Maruyama ron 7,700 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 16% | 42% | 21% | 22% | +1.9 | +19.7 | -1.0 | -20.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 14% | 60% | 16% | 10% | -4.3 | -0.6 | +1.7 | +3.2 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 60% | 18% | 10% | +23.9 | -1.8 | -14.0 | -8.2 |
| East 4 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,500 from Kenji Katsumata | 24% | 59% | 9% | 8% | -4.8 | +1.6 | +0.7 | +2.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 62% | 9% | 9% | -1.9 | +4.7 | +2.3 | -5.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 67% | 10% | 5% | -21.8 | -6.6 | +37.7 | -9.2 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Kanako Maruyama | 5% | 60% | 32% | 3% | -0.6 | -15.2 | +17.0 | -1.2 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,800 from Kanako Maruyama | 3% | 36% | 58% | 3% | +2.5 | -23.2 | +22.3 | -1.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 5% | 91% | 2% | -4.7 | +5.8 | -1.5 | +0.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kanako Maruyama ron 8,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 0% | 4% | 94% | 2% | +1.1 | +10.3 | +3.3 | -14.7 |