Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
1/3 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+63.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +38.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Maruyama Kanako 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Maruyama Kanako Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Maruyama Kanako tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | -11.1 | +24.8 | -8.7 | -5.0 |
| East 2 | Maruyama Kanako ron 7,700 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 16% | 42% | 19% | 23% | -0.7 | +20.1 | +2.2 | -21.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 1,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 13% | 59% | 17% | 11% | -2.8 | -0.2 | +0.4 | +2.6 |
| East 3 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 61% | 18% | 11% | +23.5 | -2.1 | -13.9 | -7.5 |
| East 4 | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 1,500 from Katsumata Kenji | 24% | 59% | 9% | 8% | -2.8 | +0.7 | -0.5 | +2.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 60% | 10% | 9% | -4.0 | +7.8 | +3.4 | -7.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 70% | 9% | 5% | -21.8 | -8.0 | +38.1 | -8.3 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Maruyama Kanako | 5% | 59% | 33% | 3% | -1.2 | -15.9 | +17.3 | -0.2 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,800 from Maruyama Kanako | 3% | 35% | 58% | 3% | +2.8 | -22.8 | +22.2 | -2.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 1% | 6% | 91% | 2% | -5.2 | +5.4 | -1.9 | +1.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Maruyama Kanako ron 8,000 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 0% | 4% | 93% | 2% | +2.0 | +10.3 | +3.5 | -15.9 |