Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
1/5 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+66.7pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 24,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +52.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akira Wakutsu 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Akira Wakutsu Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 16,000 | 26% | 23% | 27% | 24% | -21.5 | -11.9 | +40.7 | -7.3 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 13% | 61% | 16% | -10.0 | +32.0 | -9.8 | -12.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 24,000 | 7% | 33% | 49% | 11% | -11.8 | +52.1 | -25.1 | -15.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 83% | 13% | 3% | -1.5 | +2.8 | -1.2 | -0.1 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 84% | 12% | 3% | -2.5 | -1.8 | -0.9 | +5.2 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 7,700 from Naoki Setokuma | 1% | 85% | 11% | 3% | +2.2 | -4.0 | +19.7 | -17.9 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 77% | 22% | 1% | -2.8 | -1.2 | +0.7 | +3.3 |
| East 3, 6 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,900 | 1% | 75% | 23% | 1% | -2.8 | -7.0 | +12.8 | -3.0 |
| East 3, 7 honba | Akira Wakutsu ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 1% | 64% | 34% | 1% | +16.0 | -18.2 | +5.7 | -3.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 45% | 51% | 2% | +1.3 | +1.4 | +0.2 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 47% | 50% | 1% | -13.6 | -2.5 | -0.5 | +16.6 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 45% | 53% | 2% | -4.3 | +27.1 | -18.2 | -4.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Akira Wakutsu | 0% | 82% | 17% | 1% | -12.6 | -4.2 | +12.5 | +4.2 |
| South 3 | Akira Wakutsu ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 73% | 27% | 0% | +11.6 | +9.6 | -18.1 | -3.0 |
| South 4 | Akira Wakutsu ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 0% | 95% | 4% | 0% | +21.3 | -5.9 | -0.7 | -14.7 |