Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
1/5 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+63.4pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +35.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 3,000 | 24% | 27% | 24% | 24% | +11.7 | -4.4 | -3.2 | -4.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 32% | 24% | 23% | 22% | -13.3 | -5.5 | +23.1 | -4.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 20% | 39% | 19% | -2.0 | +7.1 | -1.7 | -3.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 21% | 24% | 38% | 18% | +1.2 | -6.8 | +24.6 | -18.9 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 5,200 from Go Kobayashi | 17% | 15% | 61% | 8% | +14.3 | +1.1 | -13.7 | -1.7 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 29% | 17% | 45% | 8% | +1.9 | +25.1 | -22.5 | -4.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 38% | 26% | 5% | +6.1 | -2.9 | -1.4 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 33% | 25% | 6% | +35.2 | -14.2 | -15.5 | -5.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 76% | 13% | 8% | 2% | -2.0 | +3.2 | -2.6 | +1.4 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 76% | 15% | 7% | 2% | -8.3 | +2.8 | +3.9 | +1.6 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Go Kobayashi | 66% | 20% | 11% | 3% | -2.4 | +13.8 | -9.2 | -2.2 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 61% | 30% | 7% | 2% | +2.6 | -12.4 | -11.0 | +20.8 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 6,000 | 70% | 18% | 5% | 7% | -5.5 | -9.3 | +22.4 | -7.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 65% | 14% | 14% | 7% | +11.1 | +3.6 | -9.5 | -5.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 3,900 from Aki Nikaido | 82% | 10% | 3% | 5% | +13.8 | -22.4 | +18.7 | -10.2 |