Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
1/7 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+68.4pt). The game was decided in South 2: Sayaka Kayamori ron 16,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +32.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -7.5 | -5.3 | +14.4 | -1.6 |
| East 2 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 7,700 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 19% | 22% | 36% | 23% | +0.7 | +21.7 | -2.9 | -19.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 19% | 36% | 31% | 14% | -1.5 | -4.3 | +7.7 | -1.9 |
| East 3 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 18% | 31% | 39% | 12% | +7.5 | -0.4 | -2.0 | -5.1 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,200 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 23% | 31% | 37% | 10% | -1.9 | +1.8 | +15.7 | -15.6 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 18% | 28% | 50% | 4% | -24.4 | +0.5 | +6.4 | +17.5 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 16,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 5% | 27% | 61% | 8% | +8.8 | -47.4 | +32.9 | +5.7 |
| South 3 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | +0.9 | +11.2 | -1.9 | -10.2 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -15.1 | -13.7 | -3.4 | +32.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | +5.6 | -22.1 | -4.6 | +21.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 85% | 14% | +1.3 | -1.5 | -2.2 | +2.4 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 82% | 18% | -1.9 | +1.7 | -3.5 | +3.7 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,900 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 0% | 0% | 76% | 24% | +0.2 | -7.2 | -18.1 | +25.1 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 67% | -0.5 | -1.0 | +30.6 | -29.1 |