Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
1/11 Game 1
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+49.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Sho Shiratori tsumo 5,200, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +57.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -2.3 | +33.3 | -29.5 | -1.5 |
| East 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 20% | 48% | 9% | 22% | +26.2 | -25.0 | -2.0 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 5,200 | 42% | 26% | 9% | 23% | +13.4 | -3.0 | -8.9 | -1.5 |
| East 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Sayaka Okada | 55% | 20% | 4% | 21% | +0.2 | -1.3 | -6.5 | +7.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 19% | 3% | 23% | -4.1 | -1.4 | +2.1 | +3.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 50% | 20% | 3% | 28% | -23.6 | +2.9 | +22.3 | -1.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 27% | 12% | 30% | +1.7 | +3.1 | -2.2 | -2.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 28% | 10% | 28% | +5.5 | -1.0 | -2.0 | -2.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 36% | 29% | 10% | 26% | -13.3 | -9.0 | +30.9 | -8.7 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 5,200 | 27% | 23% | 28% | 23% | -1.4 | -13.5 | -8.9 | +23.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 14% | 21% | 40% | -5.5 | -3.1 | +12.4 | -3.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,000 from Sayaka Okada | 21% | 13% | 29% | 37% | -4.6 | +5.0 | -8.4 | +7.9 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 5,200 | 19% | 15% | 20% | 45% | +57.1 | -23.8 | -15.1 | -18.2 |