Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
1/11 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+55.2pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +41.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,500 from Makoto Sawazaki | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | +6.3 | -3.2 | +0.8 | -3.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 6,400 from Kenji Katsumata | 29% | 24% | 25% | 23% | -19.0 | +20.8 | -1.8 | -0.1 |
| East 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki | 15% | 40% | 23% | 22% | -0.9 | +9.5 | +0.9 | -9.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 47% | 22% | 17% | -5.1 | -14.3 | -6.6 | +26.0 |
| East 3 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 13% | 34% | 20% | 33% | -18.7 | +0.6 | -6.2 | +24.3 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 29% | 12% | 55% | -6.6 | -3.6 | +21.3 | -11.1 |
| South 1 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 29% | 24% | 44% | -8.5 | +16.6 | -3.3 | -4.8 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 43% | 21% | 35% | +12.0 | -7.8 | -5.8 | +1.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 39% | 18% | 41% | -0.5 | -4.9 | +8.3 | -3.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 3% | 32% | 26% | 39% | -17.9 | -12.0 | +41.2 | -11.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 10% | 71% | 19% | +9.4 | +0.2 | -2.0 | -7.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 9% | 77% | 15% | +1.1 | -7.4 | -3.5 | +9.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 9% | 72% | 19% | +9.2 | +10.1 | +12.3 | -31.5 |