Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2020-21 Regular Season

1/11 Game 2

Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+55.2pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +41.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Naoki Setokuma● Kenji Katsumata● Takaharu Ooi● Makoto Sawazaki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Naoki● Kenji● Takaharu● Makoto
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultKenji Katsumata
1st-place chance
Takaharu Ooi
1st-place chance
Naoki Setokuma
1st-place chance
Makoto Sawazaki
1st-place chance
Kenji Katsumata
Expected pt change
Takaharu Ooi
Expected pt change
Naoki Setokuma
Expected pt change
Makoto Sawazaki
Expected pt change
East 1Kenji Katsumata ron 1,500 from Makoto Sawazaki24%26%24%26%+6.3-3.2+0.8-3.9
East 1, 1 honbaTakaharu Ooi ron 6,400 from Kenji Katsumata29%24%25%23%-19.0+20.8-1.8-0.1
East 2Takaharu Ooi ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki15%40%23%22%-0.9+9.5+0.9-9.5
East 2, 1 honbaMakoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,00014%47%22%17%-5.1-14.3-6.6+26.0
East 3Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata13%34%20%33%-18.7+0.6-6.2+24.3
East 4Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,0005%29%12%55%-6.6-3.6+21.3-11.1
South 1Takaharu Ooi tsumo 5,2003%29%24%44%-8.5+16.6-3.3-4.8
South 2Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,0000%43%21%35%+12.0-7.8-5.8+1.6
South 3Exhaustive draw2%39%18%41%-0.5-4.9+8.3-3.0
South 3, 1 honbaNaoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata3%32%26%39%-17.9-12.0+41.2-11.3
South 3, 2 honbaKenji Katsumata tsumo 8,0000%10%71%19%+9.4+0.2-2.0-7.6
South 4Exhaustive draw0%9%77%15%+1.1-7.4-3.5+9.8
South 4, 1 honbaKenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki0%9%72%19%+9.2+10.1+12.3-31.5

All 2020-21 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)