Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
1/11 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+55.2pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +40.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji ron 1,500 from Sawazaki Makoto | 23% | 25% | 26% | 26% | +7.7 | +0.3 | -0.1 | -8.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 6,400 from Katsumata Kenji | 29% | 25% | 25% | 21% | -22.5 | +18.5 | -0.6 | +4.6 |
| East 2 | Ooi Takaharu ron 3,900 from Sawazaki Makoto | 14% | 40% | 23% | 22% | +2.4 | +9.0 | +1.0 | -12.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 46% | 24% | 15% | -6.8 | -12.8 | -9.0 | +28.6 |
| East 3 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 13% | 34% | 20% | 34% | -17.4 | -1.4 | -4.6 | +23.4 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 29% | 12% | 54% | -6.6 | -2.5 | +21.0 | -11.9 |
| South 1 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 28% | 26% | 43% | -8.8 | +16.4 | -4.4 | -3.3 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 43% | 20% | 36% | +12.3 | -8.1 | -5.5 | +1.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 2% | 38% | 18% | 42% | -2.1 | -3.2 | +9.4 | -4.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 2% | 35% | 25% | 37% | -16.9 | -11.7 | +40.0 | -11.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 13% | 70% | 17% | +9.1 | -1.0 | -1.4 | -6.6 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 8% | 78% | 14% | +1.1 | -7.5 | -4.4 | +10.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 0% | 10% | 70% | 20% | +9.2 | +10.0 | +13.0 | -32.2 |