Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2020-21 Regular Season

1/11 Game 2

Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+55.2pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +40.0.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Setokuma Naoki● Katsumata Kenji● Ooi Takaharu● Sawazaki Makoto0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Setokuma● Katsumata● Ooi● Sawazaki
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultKatsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Ooi Takaharu
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Sawazaki Makoto
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Ooi Takaharu
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Sawazaki Makoto
Expected pt change
East 1Katsumata Kenji ron 1,500 from Sawazaki Makoto23%25%26%26%+7.7+0.3-0.1-8.0
East 1, 1 honbaOoi Takaharu ron 6,400 from Katsumata Kenji29%25%25%21%-22.5+18.5-0.6+4.6
East 2Ooi Takaharu ron 3,900 from Sawazaki Makoto14%40%23%22%+2.4+9.0+1.0-12.4
East 2, 1 honbaSawazaki Makoto tsumo 8,00015%46%24%15%-6.8-12.8-9.0+28.6
East 3Sawazaki Makoto ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji13%34%20%34%-17.4-1.4-4.6+23.4
East 4Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,0005%29%12%54%-6.6-2.5+21.0-11.9
South 1Ooi Takaharu tsumo 5,2003%28%26%43%-8.8+16.4-4.4-3.3
South 2Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,0001%43%20%36%+12.3-8.1-5.5+1.3
South 3Draw2%38%18%42%-2.1-3.2+9.4-4.2
South 3, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji2%35%25%37%-16.9-11.7+40.0-11.4
South 3, 2 honbaKatsumata Kenji tsumo 8,0000%13%70%17%+9.1-1.0-1.4-6.6
South 4Draw0%8%78%14%+1.1-7.5-4.4+10.9
South 4, 1 honbaKatsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto0%10%70%20%+9.2+10.0+13.0-32.2

All 2020-21 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)