Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
1/22 Game 1
Shingo Hori finished 1st (+54.5pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +35.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Go Kobayashi ron 2,600 from Mari Takamiya | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -2.3 | -10.3 | +1.3 | +11.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 19% | 24% | 33% | -3.0 | +6.8 | -2.3 | -1.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 23% | 24% | 32% | +37.0 | -20.1 | -9.0 | -7.9 |
| East 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 6,400 from Sayaka Kayamori | 51% | 10% | 16% | 23% | -16.1 | -0.3 | -2.5 | +18.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 10% | 14% | 41% | -2.4 | +5.3 | -1.4 | -1.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 13% | 14% | 40% | +5.5 | +3.1 | -5.1 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Shingo Hori ron 5,200 from Go Kobayashi | 39% | 14% | 12% | 35% | +0.4 | -3.6 | +24.2 | -21.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 41% | 13% | 26% | 21% | -2.8 | +6.4 | -2.2 | -1.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 37% | 17% | 25% | 21% | -8.7 | -17.7 | +35.4 | -9.0 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 2,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 23% | 4% | 61% | 12% | -7.8 | -5.5 | +6.5 | +6.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 1% | 77% | 12% | +4.0 | -5.1 | +10.8 | -9.8 |