Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
1/28 Game 1
Kotaro Uchikawa finished 1st (+54.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Kotaro Uchikawa's expected points by +39.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 7,800 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +22.1 | -7.1 | -7.2 | -7.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 41% | 20% | 20% | 20% | +5.6 | -3.1 | -2.3 | -0.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 5,200 from Aki Nikaido | 46% | 18% | 17% | 19% | -18.2 | +21.6 | +0.9 | -4.3 |
| East 2 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 7,800 | 31% | 32% | 19% | 18% | -7.9 | +21.0 | -6.7 | -6.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 16,000 | 22% | 51% | 14% | 14% | -9.8 | -22.1 | -9.8 | +41.6 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 17% | 29% | 11% | 43% | +24.3 | +2.3 | -2.8 | -23.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 32% | 9% | 22% | +12.3 | -2.0 | -3.9 | -6.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 48% | 28% | 7% | 17% | -16.9 | +27.0 | -5.4 | -4.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 58% | 5% | 12% | +1.1 | +0.7 | +3.2 | -5.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 63% | 5% | 10% | -13.7 | -10.1 | +39.3 | -15.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 7,700 from Aki Nikaido | 18% | 52% | 24% | 7% | -27.7 | -7.9 | +32.4 | +3.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 2% | 33% | 59% | 6% | +1.0 | +14.6 | -10.9 | -4.7 |
| South 4 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 1,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 1% | 56% | 38% | 5% | +5.1 | -20.9 | +27.9 | -12.1 |