Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/5 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +43.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 7,800 | 24% | 25% | 26% | 26% | +20.7 | -6.5 | -6.3 | -7.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 39% | 20% | 21% | 20% | +4.8 | -2.0 | -0.9 | -1.9 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 43% | 17% | 21% | 19% | +30.3 | -10.5 | -11.0 | -8.8 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 70% | 9% | 11% | 10% | -13.2 | +29.6 | -8.3 | -8.2 |
| East 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 57% | 25% | 9% | 9% | -4.5 | -15.0 | -6.8 | +26.3 |
| East 3 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 1,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 55% | 17% | 8% | 20% | -0.1 | +2.9 | -5.4 | +2.5 |
| East 4 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 54% | 18% | 5% | 23% | +20.9 | +0.1 | +3.0 | -23.9 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 80% | 12% | 3% | 6% | -0.6 | -20.3 | -2.4 | +23.3 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 82% | 5% | 2% | 11% | -31.0 | -5.2 | -3.4 | +39.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 1% | 3% | 61% | -2.3 | -2.0 | +5.5 | -1.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 2% | 4% | 60% | -10.8 | -14.9 | +35.7 | -10.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 2% | 18% | 52% | -19.9 | -6.6 | +47.7 | -21.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 6,400 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 7% | 0% | 73% | 19% | +23.6 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -22.0 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 0% | 74% | 7% | +43.4 | -2.5 | -30.4 | -10.5 |