Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/5 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+69.5pt). The game was decided in South 1: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +30.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 2,000 | 25% | 26% | 23% | 26% | -2.3 | -2.3 | +8.0 | -3.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 23% | 31% | 24% | +4.6 | -4.7 | -4.6 | +4.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 27% | 20% | 26% | 27% | -0.9 | +0.6 | -25.8 | +26.1 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 19% | 10% | 49% | +28.8 | -6.5 | -4.9 | -17.4 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 50% | 13% | 8% | 29% | +30.3 | -7.9 | -9.7 | -12.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 83% | 6% | 2% | 9% | +3.0 | -2.6 | +1.3 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 85% | 4% | 3% | 8% | +0.2 | +13.3 | -3.3 | -10.2 |
| South 2 | Go Kobayashi ron 5,200 from Takaharu Ooi | 87% | 5% | 2% | 5% | +2.9 | -15.6 | +10.1 | +2.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 94% | 0% | 2% | 4% | +2.2 | -1.4 | -5.0 | +4.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Go Kobayashi | 97% | 0% | 0% | 3% | -0.3 | +1.3 | -7.4 | +6.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 96% | 0% | 0% | 4% | +1.5 | -30.7 | +47.6 | -18.3 |