Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/8 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+74.0pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +35.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Go Kobayashi ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -1.4 | +5.9 | -1.2 | -3.3 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 25% | 28% | 24% | 23% | +6.7 | -0.9 | -4.2 | -1.6 |
| East 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 28% | 27% | 22% | 23% | +2.3 | +5.1 | -5.9 | -1.6 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 30% | 32% | 18% | 20% | +35.5 | -1.6 | -2.2 | -31.7 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 64% | 21% | 11% | 4% | +25.9 | -11.2 | -7.5 | -7.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 3,900 | 90% | 6% | 3% | 1% | +6.2 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -1.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 95% | 3% | 2% | 0% | -7.6 | -5.5 | -6.8 | +19.9 |
| South 2 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 3,000 | 92% | 4% | 2% | 2% | -1.5 | +6.8 | -2.0 | -3.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 4,000 | 91% | 5% | 2% | 2% | +7.1 | -3.5 | -2.8 | -0.8 |
| South 3 | Yuumi Uotani ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 97% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0.0 | -4.1 | +29.3 | -25.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 2,700 | 96% | 1% | 3% | 1% | +0.5 | +8.7 | -7.8 | -1.4 |
| South 4 | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 2,000 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 | -12.5 | +18.1 | -5.6 |