Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/9 Game 1
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+56.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +37.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -11.2 | +0.6 | +12.2 | -1.5 |
| East 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 19% | 25% | 34% | 23% | -5.5 | -2.9 | +11.0 | -2.6 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Kanako Maruyama | 15% | 21% | 43% | 21% | +35.7 | -32.5 | -5.5 | +2.3 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 6,000 | 37% | 7% | 35% | 21% | -5.8 | -4.1 | -3.2 | +13.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 6% | 32% | 30% | +4.3 | +1.1 | -1.7 | -3.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 5,200 from Aki Nikaido | 36% | 5% | 31% | 27% | -23.0 | -1.2 | +23.4 | +0.8 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 4% | 56% | 25% | +5.9 | -9.4 | -1.7 | +5.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 1% | 54% | 28% | -11.0 | -3.0 | -23.5 | +37.5 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 0% | 12% | 82% | -2.8 | -1.3 | -1.3 | +5.4 |