Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/11 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+55.0pt). The game was decided in South 4: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +55.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Uotani Yuumi 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Uotani Yuumi Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Sonoda Ken | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -0.4 | -6.2 | +1.9 | +4.7 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 21% | 26% | 29% | -6.2 | -17.8 | -8.9 | +33.0 |
| East 3 | Uotani Yuumi tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 9% | 16% | 58% | -9.7 | -8.1 | +29.9 | -12.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 2,600 from Uotani Yuumi | 12% | 7% | 37% | 43% | +5.6 | -2.7 | -6.7 | +3.8 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 16,000 | 13% | 6% | 31% | 50% | -11.3 | +45.0 | -10.1 | -23.6 |
| South 1 | Ooi Takaharu ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken | 12% | 32% | 26% | 30% | +42.9 | -39.8 | -2.0 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Uotani Yuumi ron 3,900 from Ooi Takaharu | 41% | 8% | 24% | 27% | -21.2 | -1.0 | +19.9 | +2.4 |
| South 2 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 9% | 43% | 29% | +34.6 | -15.3 | -10.4 | -8.9 |
| South 3 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000 | 56% | 1% | 25% | 19% | +6.3 | +5.7 | -5.3 | -6.7 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 70% | 1% | 15% | 13% | -28.8 | -6.9 | -20.1 | +55.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 15% | 0% | 4% | 81% | -2.8 | +1.0 | -4.4 | +6.2 |