Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/12 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+51.9pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +62.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 9,600 from Makoto Sawazaki | 24% | 24% | 24% | 27% | +23.9 | +0.5 | +0.4 | -24.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 43% | 22% | 23% | 13% | -12.5 | +24.9 | -7.0 | -5.5 |
| East 2 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,000 | 30% | 41% | 20% | 9% | -1.1 | -11.3 | -9.5 | +21.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 33% | 16% | 20% | -3.9 | -4.1 | +2.8 | +5.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 3,000 | 29% | 29% | 18% | 24% | -5.5 | -1.9 | +10.6 | -3.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000 | 26% | 28% | 24% | 23% | -18.4 | -18.1 | +50.9 | -14.4 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 10% | 12% | 67% | 11% | -19.5 | +21.5 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 18,000 | 5% | 21% | 66% | 9% | -14.6 | -14.7 | -18.9 | +48.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 14% | 42% | 42% | -3.9 | +12.1 | +0.7 | -8.9 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 1,500 from Makoto Sawazaki | 2% | 22% | 43% | 33% | +2.2 | +1.9 | -0.1 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 7,800 | 2% | 24% | 44% | 30% | +16.3 | -4.2 | -4.2 | -7.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki | 5% | 24% | 44% | 27% | -4.5 | -1.2 | +17.2 | -11.6 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 19% | 64% | 15% | -4.2 | -5.5 | +2.4 | +7.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 12% | 68% | 19% | +41.1 | -10.1 | -10.4 | -20.7 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 11% | 63% | 14% | -5.6 | -6.5 | -4.5 | +16.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 14% | 11% | 56% | 19% | +62.2 | -28.3 | -19.3 | -14.6 |