Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/12 Game 1
Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+51.9pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +62.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nikaido Aki ron 9,600 from Sawazaki Makoto | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +23.0 | +1.9 | +0.2 | -25.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 41% | 25% | 23% | 11% | -10.1 | +21.6 | -7.9 | -3.6 |
| East 2 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 8,000 | 32% | 40% | 18% | 10% | -5.5 | -11.7 | -6.8 | +24.1 |
| East 3 | Draw | 29% | 32% | 16% | 23% | -3.6 | -1.7 | +1.9 | +3.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 3,000 | 27% | 30% | 18% | 26% | -3.4 | -4.4 | +11.8 | -4.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 18,000 | 25% | 27% | 25% | 23% | -19.2 | -15.8 | +49.1 | -14.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Nikaido Aki | 10% | 13% | 66% | 12% | -20.2 | +20.9 | +0.1 | -0.7 |
| East 4 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 18,000 | 4% | 21% | 66% | 9% | -13.2 | -14.3 | -18.6 | +46.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 15% | 43% | 40% | -3.4 | +12.5 | -0.9 | -8.1 |
| South 1 | Nikaido Aki ron 1,500 from Sawazaki Makoto | 2% | 23% | 43% | 32% | +1.2 | +1.0 | -0.6 | -1.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 7,800 | 2% | 24% | 42% | 32% | +16.1 | -4.4 | -3.2 | -8.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Sawazaki Makoto | 6% | 25% | 42% | 27% | -4.6 | -0.5 | +16.9 | -11.9 |
| South 2 | Draw | 2% | 19% | 64% | 16% | -2.4 | -4.0 | +1.5 | +4.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 14% | 67% | 18% | +40.3 | -11.7 | -10.4 | -18.1 |
| South 4 | Draw | 14% | 11% | 61% | 14% | -6.1 | -6.9 | -3.4 | +16.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 14% | 11% | 55% | 20% | +62.4 | -27.9 | -19.2 | -15.3 |