Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/15 Game 1
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+66.8pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +36.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Jun Murakami tsumo 7,800 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | +18.7 | -6.4 | -7.7 | -4.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 6,400 from Jun Murakami | 38% | 20% | 20% | 22% | -16.7 | -0.9 | +18.1 | -0.6 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,900 | 26% | 20% | 33% | 22% | -5.7 | +13.8 | -2.9 | -5.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 30% | 31% | 19% | -0.5 | -4.3 | -1.4 | +6.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 26% | 29% | 23% | +40.8 | -9.5 | -19.5 | -11.7 |
| East 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 58% | 15% | 13% | 14% | -0.2 | -2.7 | +24.6 | -21.8 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 13% | 26% | 4% | +5.6 | -0.7 | -2.0 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 61% | 12% | 23% | 3% | -11.2 | -30.1 | +36.1 | +5.2 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 7,700 from Jun Murakami | 37% | 2% | 59% | 2% | -18.3 | +14.6 | +7.0 | -3.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 5% | 75% | 2% | +2.1 | +4.4 | -2.2 | -4.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Jun Murakami | 21% | 6% | 71% | 2% | -11.9 | -3.7 | +18.0 | -2.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 0% | 96% | 1% | +3.1 | -2.9 | +0.9 | -1.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 0% | 95% | 1% | -3.2 | -7.6 | -4.1 | +14.9 |
| South 4 | Jun Murakami ron 3,900 from Mari Takamiya | 1% | 0% | 97% | 2% | +7.5 | +9.3 | +1.6 | -18.4 |