Game · 2020-21 Regular Season

2/15 Game 1

Hagiwara Masato finished 1st (+66.8pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Hagiwara Masato ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki, which moved Hagiwara Masato's expected points by +35.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Murakami Jun 1st-place chance	Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance	Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance	Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance	Murakami Jun Expected pt change	Nikaido Aki Expected pt change	Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change	Takamiya Mari Expected pt change
East 1	Murakami Jun tsumo 7,800	27%	23%	25%	26%	+19.0	-3.5	-7.3	-8.2
East 1, 1 honba	Hagiwara Masato ron 6,400 from Murakami Jun	42%	20%	19%	20%	-19.1	0.0	+18.3	+0.9
East 2	Nikaido Aki tsumo 3,900	25%	21%	33%	21%	-4.4	+11.4	-1.1	-5.9
East 2, 1 honba	Draw	23%	28%	32%	18%	+0.2	-2.3	-3.3	+5.4
East 3, 2 honba	Murakami Jun tsumo 12,000	22%	27%	30%	22%	+38.9	-10.7	-20.3	-8.0
East 4	Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari	57%	16%	13%	15%	+1.0	-1.9	+25.9	-25.0
South 1	Draw	57%	13%	26%	4%	+4.3	-3.0	-2.8	+1.5
South 1, 1 honba	Hagiwara Masato ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki	61%	11%	23%	5%	-9.4	-28.5	+35.6	+2.3
South 2	Nikaido Aki ron 7,700 from Murakami Jun	39%	2%	57%	2%	-18.4	+14.9	+7.2	-3.7
South 2, 1 honba	Draw	20%	5%	73%	2%	-0.1	+5.3	-1.3	-3.8
South 2, 2 honba	Hagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Murakami Jun	20%	7%	71%	3%	-9.8	-4.6	+17.6	-3.2
South 3	Draw	3%	0%	96%	1%	+2.1	-2.4	+1.7	-1.4
South 3, 1 honba	Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000	3%	0%	96%	1%	-2.6	-7.7	-4.9	+15.2
South 4	Murakami Jun ron 3,900 from Takamiya Mari	1%	0%	97%	2%	+7.2	+9.1	+1.9	-18.2

All 2020-21 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)