Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/15 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+50.4pt). The game was decided in East 1: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +29.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Satoshi Fujisaki 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Satoshi Fujisaki Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +29.3 | -11.0 | -9.1 | -9.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,600 from Satoshi Fujisaki | 48% | 17% | 17% | 18% | +0.5 | -11.0 | 0.0 | +10.4 |
| East 2 | Taro Suzuki ron 1,300 from Naoki Setokuma | 49% | 12% | 17% | 23% | -1.9 | -0.7 | +3.2 | -0.5 |
| East 3 | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 3,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 48% | 9% | 19% | 23% | -6.5 | +9.2 | -4.8 | +2.1 |
| East 4 | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 5,200 from Taro Suzuki | 42% | 15% | 17% | 26% | +0.4 | +17.0 | -14.1 | -3.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 25% | 10% | 23% | +7.8 | -2.5 | -3.2 | -2.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Satoshi Fujisaki tsumo 4,000 | 51% | 22% | 8% | 19% | -7.0 | +15.2 | -4.8 | -3.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 43% | 33% | 7% | 17% | +1.7 | -1.6 | +3.5 | -3.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Satoshi Fujisaki | 46% | 30% | 8% | 15% | +10.3 | -22.8 | -10.2 | +22.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 66% | 11% | 1% | 22% | -4.6 | -2.5 | -0.4 | +7.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 11% | 1% | 31% | +19.7 | -7.1 | -1.2 | -11.5 |