Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/15 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+50.4pt). The game was decided in East 1: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +29.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Fujisaki Satoshi 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Fujisaki Satoshi Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 26% | 23% | 27% | +29.8 | -10.7 | -6.4 | -12.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,600 from Fujisaki Satoshi | 48% | 17% | 18% | 16% | +0.5 | -10.6 | +0.1 | +10.0 |
| East 2 | Suzuki Taro ron 1,300 from Setokuma Naoki | 48% | 13% | 17% | 22% | -1.7 | -2.1 | +3.0 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Fujisaki Satoshi ron 3,200 from Setokuma Naoki | 48% | 10% | 20% | 22% | -6.5 | +12.8 | -6.6 | +0.3 |
| East 4 | Fujisaki Satoshi ron 5,200 from Suzuki Taro | 42% | 17% | 16% | 25% | +2.0 | +14.8 | -15.2 | -1.5 |
| South 1 | Draw | 44% | 26% | 9% | 21% | +6.3 | -3.1 | -0.4 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Fujisaki Satoshi tsumo 4,000 | 51% | 22% | 8% | 18% | -7.6 | +17.2 | -6.5 | -3.1 |
| South 2 | Draw | 42% | 36% | 6% | 16% | +1.8 | -4.1 | +4.8 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Fujisaki Satoshi | 45% | 30% | 9% | 16% | +10.5 | -21.6 | -10.1 | +21.2 |
| South 4 | Draw | 65% | 12% | 1% | 22% | -5.5 | -3.2 | -1.2 | +9.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 55% | 11% | 1% | 33% | +20.9 | -7.1 | -1.2 | -12.6 |