Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/16 Game 1
Nobuhiro Ishibashi finished 1st (+63.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Nobuhiro Ishibashi's expected points by +49.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -1.3 | -6.6 | +11.7 | -3.8 |
| East 2 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 21% | 34% | 22% | +24.2 | -15.9 | -5.3 | -2.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 11% | 28% | 20% | -2.8 | -0.5 | -2.9 | +6.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 1,500 from Sayaka Kayamori | 40% | 11% | 25% | 24% | +1.1 | -5.1 | -4.0 | +8.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Makoto Sawazaki | 41% | 9% | 21% | 29% | -8.4 | +6.8 | +5.1 | -3.5 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 35% | 12% | 27% | 26% | -0.1 | +26.2 | -28.2 | +2.2 |
| South 2 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 1,100 | 33% | 27% | 12% | 29% | +11.3 | -8.1 | -4.5 | +1.3 |
| South 3 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 12,000 | 46% | 18% | 9% | 27% | -15.2 | -16.7 | +49.4 | -17.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 30% | 11% | 42% | 18% | -7.3 | +0.1 | +38.1 | -30.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 2,700 | 7% | 2% | 89% | 3% | -1.0 | -2.3 | -0.5 | +3.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 1% | 94% | 3% | +0.2 | -2.7 | -1.8 | +4.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,300 from Makoto Sawazaki | 5% | 0% | 91% | 4% | +2.8 | +2.9 | +6.5 | -12.2 |