Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/16 Game 1
Ishibashi Nobuhiro finished 1st (+63.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 12,000, which moved Ishibashi Nobuhiro's expected points by +47.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 2,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -2.7 | -7.9 | +13.3 | -2.8 |
| East 2 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 19% | 34% | 24% | +23.3 | -12.3 | -4.9 | -6.1 |
| East 3 | Draw | 41% | 11% | 28% | 20% | +0.3 | -0.7 | -5.2 | +5.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 1,500 from Kayamori Sayaka | 42% | 12% | 23% | 23% | -1.2 | -3.8 | -2.3 | +7.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,600 from Sawazaki Makoto | 40% | 11% | 22% | 28% | -7.8 | +4.6 | +2.4 | +0.8 |
| South 1 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 34% | 12% | 25% | 29% | -1.3 | +26.5 | -25.6 | +0.4 |
| South 2 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 1,100 | 32% | 26% | 12% | 30% | +13.2 | -10.0 | -3.9 | +0.7 |
| South 3 | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 12,000 | 46% | 16% | 9% | 28% | -16.3 | -14.9 | +47.2 | -15.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko | 28% | 11% | 40% | 20% | -6.7 | +0.5 | +38.8 | -32.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 2,700 | 7% | 2% | 89% | 3% | -0.2 | -2.8 | -0.6 | +3.7 |
| South 4 | Draw | 4% | 1% | 93% | 3% | -1.3 | -1.3 | -0.9 | +3.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 1,300 from Sawazaki Makoto | 4% | 1% | 92% | 4% | +3.2 | +1.9 | +6.1 | -11.2 |