Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
2/16 Game 2
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+66.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +31.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 25% | 25% | 23% | +2.6 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 24% | 24% | 23% | -1.7 | -1.5 | +5.0 | -1.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 26% | 25% | 27% | 22% | -1.2 | -11.4 | +12.6 | 0.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 16% | 37% | 22% | -1.3 | -2.9 | -3.6 | +7.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 25% | 15% | 34% | 27% | -0.9 | +13.0 | -8.7 | -3.3 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 22% | 28% | 25% | -16.1 | +29.2 | -5.8 | -7.2 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 7,700 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 13% | 48% | 22% | 18% | -0.1 | +21.9 | -24.6 | +2.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 7% | 72% | 7% | 15% | +4.5 | +22.0 | +4.3 | -30.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 94% | 3% | 2% | -11.8 | -11.1 | -12.4 | +35.3 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 87% | 3% | 9% | -2.6 | -1.8 | +3.1 | +1.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 84% | 4% | 10% | +28.3 | -0.4 | -17.8 | -10.1 |
| South 4 | Yuumi Uotani ron 1,500 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 3% | 89% | 0% | 8% | -0.9 | -1.3 | -3.6 | +5.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 85% | 0% | 10% | -16.7 | -19.3 | -4.4 | +40.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 48% | 0% | 49% | -4.4 | +31.4 | -1.7 | -25.3 |