Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
3/1 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+58.6pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +38.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +0.1 | -11.3 | +10.8 | +0.4 |
| East 2 | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 23% | 20% | 32% | 25% | +24.8 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -21.6 |
| East 3 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 1,100 | 43% | 16% | 29% | 12% | +0.2 | -1.1 | -3.9 | +4.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 44% | 16% | 25% | 15% | +1.0 | -8.1 | +3.2 | +3.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 44% | 11% | 28% | 17% | -12.4 | -7.9 | +38.7 | -18.5 |
| South 1 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,600 from Jun Murakami | 23% | 5% | 67% | 5% | -6.1 | +0.1 | +3.8 | +2.1 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 6,800 from Kenji Katsumata | 15% | 5% | 75% | 5% | +4.0 | +17.0 | -17.6 | -3.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,400 | 27% | 14% | 53% | 7% | -6.8 | -12.5 | +22.0 | -2.8 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 2% | 85% | 4% | -9.9 | +21.5 | -4.7 | -6.9 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,000 from Jun Murakami | 6% | 5% | 85% | 4% | -9.9 | +9.2 | +8.1 | -7.4 |