Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
3/2 Game 2
Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+63.3pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Uotani Yuumi, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +33.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Uotani Yuumi 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Uotani Yuumi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +3.8 | +0.5 | -2.0 | -2.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Uotani Yuumi | 28% | 25% | 23% | 25% | +33.3 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -31.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Draw | 53% | 21% | 18% | 8% | -2.2 | -2.4 | +6.1 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 51% | 20% | 21% | 8% | +3.3 | -2.0 | -0.7 | -0.6 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Uotani Yuumi ron 1,000 from Okada Sayaka | 56% | 16% | 21% | 7% | -3.5 | +1.2 | -2.8 | +5.1 |
| East 4 | Draw | 55% | 18% | 18% | 9% | -0.4 | -2.0 | -1.3 | +3.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 54% | 17% | 19% | 10% | +22.8 | -5.7 | -5.5 | -11.6 |
| South 1 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 16,000 | 80% | 9% | 8% | 3% | -25.5 | +46.2 | -9.8 | -10.9 |
| South 2 | Okada Sayaka ron 8,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 44% | 48% | 7% | 1% | +28.2 | -26.5 | -0.7 | -0.9 |
| South 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 6,000 | 87% | 7% | 4% | 1% | -3.7 | -10.6 | +18.2 | -3.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 1,500 from Kurosawa Saki | 83% | 6% | 10% | 1% | -0.7 | -4.9 | +5.5 | +0.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 82% | 4% | 12% | 1% | -2.6 | -4.0 | +8.8 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Uotani Yuumi tsumo 5,200 | 78% | 4% | 17% | 1% | +5.4 | -4.3 | -10.4 | +9.3 |
| South 4 | Okada Sayaka ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari | 93% | 1% | 4% | 2% | +4.8 | -2.9 | +3.5 | -5.4 |