Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
3/2 Game 2
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+63.3pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Yuumi Uotani, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +34.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +2.1 | +1.8 | -2.7 | -1.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 28% | 26% | 22% | 24% | +34.9 | -1.8 | -0.9 | -32.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 20% | 18% | 8% | -4.2 | -0.6 | +5.1 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 51% | 21% | 21% | 8% | +3.6 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -2.5 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 1,000 from Sayaka Okada | 55% | 18% | 20% | 6% | -3.9 | +0.4 | -2.4 | +5.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 19% | 18% | 9% | +0.3 | -4.2 | -0.6 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 53% | 17% | 19% | 11% | +22.6 | -4.1 | -6.4 | -12.1 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 16,000 | 80% | 8% | 8% | 3% | -24.3 | +44.9 | -10.3 | -10.3 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 46% | 46% | 7% | 2% | +27.3 | -25.8 | -0.4 | -1.1 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 6,000 | 88% | 7% | 4% | 2% | -3.6 | -9.1 | +17.5 | -4.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 1,500 from Saki Kurosawa | 83% | 6% | 10% | 1% | +0.2 | -5.9 | +5.6 | +0.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 84% | 4% | 11% | 1% | -3.6 | -4.0 | +8.8 | -1.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 5,200 | 78% | 3% | 17% | 1% | +5.2 | -3.4 | -10.7 | +8.9 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 93% | 1% | 4% | 2% | +5.0 | -3.9 | +4.6 | -5.8 |