Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
3/11 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+51.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 16,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +65.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -4.2 | -2.1 | +5.3 | +1.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 24% | 29% | 25% | -1.1 | +4.6 | +4.2 | -7.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 1,500 | 21% | 27% | 31% | 22% | -4.8 | -5.7 | +16.6 | -6.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 20% | 46% | 16% | -0.4 | -2.1 | -4.4 | +7.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 17% | 21% | 41% | 21% | -10.8 | -0.8 | +1.7 | +9.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 7,800 | 13% | 19% | 43% | 26% | -6.2 | -7.5 | -10.3 | +23.9 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,000 | 9% | 15% | 32% | 45% | -2.8 | -4.7 | -4.8 | +12.2 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 1,100 | 7% | 10% | 25% | 58% | +3.5 | -0.8 | +0.4 | -3.1 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 11% | 25% | 57% | +34.6 | -12.4 | -11.2 | -10.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 27% | 7% | 20% | 46% | -40.9 | +37.4 | -0.2 | +3.7 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 25% | 21% | 50% | -8.3 | -24.9 | +44.8 | -11.5 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 16,000 | 1% | 5% | 66% | 28% | +65.0 | -19.6 | -28.1 | -17.3 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 2,000 | 49% | 3% | 30% | 19% | +26.5 | -4.8 | -6.5 | -15.3 |