Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
3/11 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+51.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 16,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +63.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 27% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -4.8 | -0.7 | +6.4 | -0.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 22% | 24% | 30% | 25% | -0.2 | +2.7 | +3.8 | -6.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 1,500 | 21% | 25% | 33% | 21% | -3.6 | -6.0 | +16.1 | -6.6 |
| East 3 | Draw | 19% | 19% | 46% | 16% | -3.7 | -0.4 | -0.8 | +4.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,900 from Sasaki Hisato | 16% | 20% | 45% | 19% | -9.7 | +0.9 | -1.9 | +10.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 7,800 | 12% | 20% | 43% | 26% | -6.3 | -9.4 | -10.2 | +25.9 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 3,000 | 8% | 14% | 32% | 46% | -1.6 | -3.3 | -5.1 | +10.1 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 1,100 | 7% | 11% | 25% | 57% | +5.2 | -2.1 | +0.3 | -3.3 |
| South 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 11% | 25% | 55% | +35.3 | -11.3 | -11.8 | -12.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 31% | 8% | 20% | 42% | -42.9 | +35.7 | 0.0 | +7.2 |
| South 2 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 24% | 20% | 51% | -8.6 | -23.5 | +44.2 | -12.2 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 16,000 | 1% | 5% | 65% | 29% | +63.5 | -20.2 | -25.6 | -17.7 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 2,000 | 47% | 3% | 32% | 19% | +27.4 | -4.9 | -7.4 | -15.1 |