Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
3/11 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+58.5pt). The game was decided in South 4, 5 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +53.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Yudai Maehara 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Yudai Maehara Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 4,800 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +15.6 | -5.6 | -2.5 | -7.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Yudai Maehara tsumo 1,100 | 36% | 21% | 23% | 20% | -3.7 | +4.0 | -2.0 | +1.6 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 33% | 24% | 22% | 22% | +23.5 | -3.4 | -19.3 | -0.9 |
| East 3 | Yudai Maehara ron 6,400 from Aki Nikaido | 54% | 18% | 10% | 18% | +0.1 | +19.9 | -17.7 | -2.3 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 52% | 30% | 3% | 15% | -3.8 | -5.1 | +27.8 | -19.0 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Yudai Maehara | 51% | 30% | 12% | 8% | -1.5 | -37.7 | +38.0 | +1.1 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 1,300 from Ken Sonoda | 48% | 7% | 38% | 7% | +3.5 | -3.4 | +6.7 | -6.7 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 52% | 2% | 42% | 5% | -6.0 | -2.3 | +8.8 | -0.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 39% | 1% | 55% | 5% | -1.1 | -1.6 | -0.1 | +2.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 35% | 0% | 59% | 5% | -14.9 | -15.8 | -10.4 | +41.1 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 0% | 51% | 25% | -6.8 | -0.7 | -7.5 | +15.0 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 2,900 from Aki Nikaido | 20% | 0% | 39% | 41% | +1.0 | -0.2 | -25.8 | +25.0 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 0% | 6% | 84% | +53.4 | -2.7 | -12.0 | -38.7 |