Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/5 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+57.9pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +32.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -13.8 | +21.6 | -5.3 | -2.5 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 16% | 42% | 21% | 21% | +0.5 | -24.3 | -0.1 | +23.9 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 15% | 23% | 22% | 41% | +1.6 | +24.4 | -24.2 | -1.8 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,300 from Aki Nikaido | 16% | 41% | 7% | 36% | +1.5 | +2.7 | +1.0 | -5.2 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 45% | 9% | 31% | +38.2 | -14.9 | -9.9 | -13.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 48% | 28% | 5% | 19% | -30.7 | +0.2 | -1.7 | +32.2 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 17% | 27% | 5% | 52% | -4.5 | -3.5 | -1.1 | +9.1 |
| South 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 5,800 from Mari Takamiya | 12% | 18% | 4% | 65% | -18.3 | +3.2 | +13.5 | +1.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 2,000 | 4% | 20% | 7% | 68% | +6.6 | -1.2 | -12.5 | +7.1 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 4% | 12% | 0% | 83% | -0.3 | -6.5 | +1.7 | +5.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 6% | 0% | 91% | -0.7 | +4.8 | -7.3 | +3.2 |