Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/5 Game 2
Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+60.4pt). The game was decided in East 2: Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +29.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Fujisaki Satoshi 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Fujisaki Satoshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Okada Sayaka ron 5,200 from Katsumata Kenji | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -16.4 | +12.7 | +2.6 | +1.1 |
| East 2 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 34% | 26% | 25% | -7.4 | +29.0 | -12.1 | -9.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 4,000 | 9% | 61% | 15% | 15% | +10.5 | -3.6 | -1.7 | -5.2 |
| East 3 | Draw | 13% | 59% | 15% | 13% | -2.6 | +2.1 | -7.5 | +8.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 12% | 61% | 10% | 17% | -0.1 | 0.0 | +1.4 | -1.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 62% | 10% | 16% | +40.7 | -12.3 | -11.3 | -17.1 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Draw | 40% | 45% | 7% | 8% | -4.8 | +8.9 | -2.0 | -2.2 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Draw | 33% | 55% | 6% | 6% | +3.7 | -0.1 | -3.0 | -0.5 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Fujisaki Satoshi ron 2,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 36% | 54% | 4% | 6% | +0.9 | -0.9 | -12.7 | +12.7 |
| South 3 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 5,200 | 35% | 55% | 2% | 8% | -9.9 | +18.7 | -7.6 | -1.2 |
| South 4 | Fujisaki Satoshi ron 1,500 from Katsumata Kenji | 12% | 83% | 0% | 5% | -3.2 | +1.1 | +0.1 | +1.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Fujisaki Satoshi ron 5,800 from Hagiwara Masato | 8% | 86% | 0% | 5% | -2.0 | -1.2 | -6.9 | +10.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 83% | 0% | 9% | +10.1 | +5.4 | -1.7 | -13.9 |