Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/5 Game 2
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+60.4pt). The game was decided in East 2: Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +30.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Satoshi Fujisaki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Satoshi Fujisaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 26% | 26% | 23% | 25% | -15.4 | +11.8 | +0.9 | +2.7 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 34% | 25% | 26% | -9.1 | +30.4 | -10.6 | -10.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,000 | 9% | 61% | 15% | 15% | +9.9 | -4.3 | -3.6 | -2.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 59% | 13% | 16% | -2.0 | +1.0 | -3.9 | +4.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 61% | 11% | 17% | -1.1 | +3.1 | +1.8 | -3.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 66% | 11% | 14% | +42.9 | -16.9 | -11.3 | -14.6 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 42% | 8% | 9% | -4.7 | +10.1 | -3.8 | -1.6 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 54% | 5% | 7% | +3.7 | +0.5 | -2.0 | -2.2 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 36% | 54% | 4% | 6% | -0.7 | -0.1 | -13.8 | +14.6 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 5,200 | 34% | 56% | 2% | 8% | -8.5 | +18.9 | -7.7 | -2.7 |
| South 4 | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 1,500 from Kenji Katsumata | 11% | 85% | 0% | 4% | -3.4 | +0.7 | -0.2 | +2.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 5,800 from Masato Hagiwara | 8% | 86% | 0% | 6% | -1.3 | -1.2 | -6.7 | +9.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 84% | 0% | 9% | +9.6 | +5.1 | -1.5 | -13.2 |