Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/8 Game 2
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+50.5pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +49.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 26% | 24% | 25% | +4.8 | -3.8 | +0.4 | -1.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 23% | 26% | 24% | +6.8 | +1.7 | -3.9 | -4.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 35% | 23% | 23% | 20% | -5.7 | -21.8 | -4.0 | +31.5 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 28% | 12% | 18% | 42% | +0.7 | -18.6 | +17.3 | +0.7 |
| East 3 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 4% | 28% | 42% | +21.6 | -5.9 | -10.6 | -5.0 |
| East 4 | Kanako Maruyama ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 45% | 3% | 18% | 35% | +10.2 | +0.4 | -7.9 | -2.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 2% | 11% | 29% | -2.5 | -2.2 | +5.6 | -1.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 55% | 3% | 14% | 28% | -6.6 | +29.8 | -11.0 | -12.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 7,800 | 53% | 11% | 12% | 23% | -8.9 | +27.8 | -9.6 | -9.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 43% | 27% | 11% | 19% | -9.0 | -26.0 | +48.9 | -13.9 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Yuumi Uotani | 32% | 10% | 45% | 13% | -2.5 | +16.5 | +2.9 | -16.8 |
| South 4 | Yuumi Uotani ron 12,000 from Kanako Maruyama | 26% | 18% | 49% | 6% | -48.9 | +2.2 | +5.8 | +41.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 15% | 63% | 21% | -6.0 | +49.8 | -23.4 | -20.4 |