Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/9 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+66.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 18,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +52.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Koshin Asakura ron 5,200 from Shingo Hori | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -16.0 | +14.7 | +1.4 | 0.0 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 3,200 from Aiko Hinata | 14% | 35% | 25% | 26% | +0.9 | -4.3 | -13.4 | +16.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 31% | 18% | 37% | -3.3 | +8.3 | -3.1 | -2.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 39% | 14% | 34% | -8.8 | -15.1 | -11.6 | +35.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 4,000 | 6% | 18% | 6% | 70% | -4.0 | -3.7 | +12.0 | -4.4 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 16% | 11% | 68% | -8.1 | +6.1 | +1.8 | +0.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 19% | 10% | 69% | +24.0 | -14.7 | -10.7 | +1.4 |
| South 3 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 6,000 | 6% | 9% | 9% | 76% | -11.1 | -8.6 | +25.9 | -6.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 7% | 19% | 68% | -8.9 | -11.1 | +43.0 | -23.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 2% | 70% | 26% | +21.6 | -12.7 | -4.7 | -4.2 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 0% | 72% | 21% | -11.1 | -6.4 | -35.1 | +52.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,000 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | +2.2 | -1.0 | -3.9 | +2.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 1,300 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -0.7 | -2.3 | +5.5 | -2.5 |