Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/9 Game 2
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+86.4pt). The game was decided in South 1: Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +26.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Go Kobayashi ron 6,400 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 27% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -6.4 | -15.7 | +18.4 | +3.8 |
| East 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 21% | 15% | 37% | 27% | +1.4 | +32.6 | -31.9 | -2.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 37% | 18% | 25% | -7.0 | -23.5 | +37.0 | -6.4 |
| East 3 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,200 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 17% | 20% | 43% | 21% | +0.3 | -6.9 | -1.0 | +7.7 |
| East 4 | Go Kobayashi ron 6,400 from Masato Hagiwara | 17% | 16% | 42% | 25% | -17.6 | -0.6 | +21.7 | -3.5 |
| South 1 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 7% | 11% | 65% | 17% | -23.4 | -0.8 | -2.0 | +26.1 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 8% | 58% | 34% | -0.6 | +10.3 | +2.8 | -12.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 13% | 64% | 23% | -11.1 | -7.4 | -6.5 | +25.0 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 0% | 4% | 48% | 48% | +2.3 | -18.2 | +28.7 | -12.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 0% | 85% | 15% | -11.5 | +2.7 | -5.9 | +14.7 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 74% | 26% | -0.8 | -0.9 | -4.3 | +6.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 65% | 36% | -0.9 | -1.0 | -17.8 | +19.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 0% | 0% | 23% | 77% | -0.5 | -0.1 | -22.0 | +22.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +0.2 | -1.5 | +2.6 | -1.2 |