Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/12 Game 1
Murakami Jun finished 1st (+53.7pt). The game was decided in South 3, 6 honba: Murakami Jun ron 3,900 from Shiratori Sho, which moved Murakami Jun's expected points by +37.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Fujisaki Satoshi 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Fujisaki Satoshi Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 23% | 26% | 25% | +3.4 | -1.4 | +0.1 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 28% | 23% | 25% | 24% | -9.5 | +4.1 | +4.3 | +1.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Draw | 21% | 26% | 28% | 25% | +2.3 | +3.3 | -7.9 | +2.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 29% | 23% | 25% | -7.4 | -19.6 | -7.9 | +35.0 |
| East 3 | Fujisaki Satoshi ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 15% | 13% | 16% | 56% | +0.5 | +26.6 | -5.7 | -21.4 |
| East 4 | Murakami Jun tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 33% | 14% | 36% | +25.2 | -3.8 | -7.0 | -14.4 |
| South 1 | Draw | 36% | 30% | 11% | 24% | -1.0 | -1.4 | +0.6 | +1.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 35% | 28% | 12% | 25% | -0.4 | -4.4 | -3.0 | +7.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 34% | 22% | 13% | 31% | -3.1 | -1.0 | +4.5 | -0.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 3,000 | 31% | 23% | 14% | 32% | -6.0 | -6.7 | +22.9 | -10.2 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Draw | 29% | 20% | 26% | 25% | -4.9 | -5.2 | +13.4 | -3.3 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 2,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 24% | 17% | 36% | 23% | -2.4 | -0.4 | +20.9 | -18.1 |
| South 3, 6 honba | Murakami Jun ron 3,900 from Shiratori Sho | 16% | 12% | 61% | 11% | +37.6 | -1.8 | -31.4 | -4.4 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 7,700 from Shiratori Sho | 65% | 9% | 15% | 11% | +2.9 | -0.3 | -37.2 | +34.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 70% | 9% | 3% | 18% | -6.1 | -3.8 | +5.9 | +3.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Murakami Jun ron 1,000 from Shiratori Sho | 60% | 10% | 6% | 24% | +21.6 | -1.2 | -15.2 | -5.1 |