Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/12 Game 1
Jun Murakami finished 1st (+53.7pt). The game was decided in South 3, 6 honba: Jun Murakami ron 3,900 from Sho Shiratori, which moved Jun Murakami's expected points by +36.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Satoshi Fujisaki 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Satoshi Fujisaki Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 27% | 25% | +6.1 | -4.6 | +1.5 | -3.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 22% | 27% | 22% | -9.5 | +5.7 | +1.3 | +2.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 26% | 28% | 24% | +0.8 | +1.8 | -6.4 | +3.8 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 27% | 23% | 28% | -9.3 | -18.0 | -5.5 | +32.9 |
| East 3 | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 14% | 13% | 18% | 55% | +2.3 | +26.6 | -9.0 | -19.9 |
| East 4 | Jun Murakami tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 32% | 13% | 37% | +23.0 | -4.9 | -4.3 | -13.8 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 28% | 12% | 26% | +2.2 | -0.4 | -2.1 | +0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 26% | 12% | 26% | -2.3 | -3.4 | -5.1 | +10.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 23% | 10% | 34% | -1.9 | -2.6 | +8.4 | -3.9 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 3,000 | 31% | 22% | 15% | 32% | -5.5 | -6.6 | +19.1 | -7.0 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 20% | 25% | 27% | -6.6 | -5.5 | +15.0 | -2.9 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 23% | 16% | 35% | 26% | -0.2 | -0.1 | +21.6 | -21.3 |
| South 3, 6 honba | Jun Murakami ron 3,900 from Sho Shiratori | 17% | 11% | 61% | 11% | +36.7 | -0.2 | -30.9 | -5.6 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 7,700 from Sho Shiratori | 65% | 10% | 14% | 11% | +3.0 | +0.1 | -37.8 | +34.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 71% | 9% | 3% | 17% | -6.1 | -4.5 | +6.1 | +4.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Jun Murakami ron 1,000 from Sho Shiratori | 60% | 10% | 6% | 24% | +21.6 | -1.4 | -15.4 | -4.9 |