Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/13 Game 1
Shingo Hori finished 1st (+71.2pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Shingo Hori tsumo 18,000, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +49.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 6,400 from Saki Kurosawa | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -19.9 | +16.9 | +0.5 | +2.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 37% | 25% | 25% | -1.9 | -2.5 | -1.3 | +5.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 18,000 | 12% | 34% | 25% | 28% | -12.6 | -19.1 | +49.2 | -17.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,000 | 6% | 14% | 68% | 12% | -4.6 | +13.3 | -7.4 | -1.4 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 4% | 22% | 60% | 14% | +0.5 | +22.9 | +0.3 | -23.6 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 39% | 56% | 3% | +29.9 | -8.3 | -10.7 | -10.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,300 from Saki Kurosawa | 15% | 36% | 47% | 3% | -9.3 | +6.1 | +2.8 | +0.4 |
| South 2 | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 7% | 42% | 49% | 3% | -15.8 | -8.9 | +25.3 | -0.6 |
| South 3 | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 16% | 83% | 1% | -3.2 | -9.8 | +18.1 | -5.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 2% | 98% | 1% | +6.5 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -4.5 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 3,900 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -2.8 | -2.1 | -1.4 | +6.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,900 from Shingo Hori | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -1.3 | -0.3 | -4.7 | +6.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 1% | 98% | 1% | +10.5 | -2.4 | +1.4 | -9.5 |