Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/15 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+80.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 3 honba: Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Sasaki Hisato, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +48.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | +3.0 | +0.3 | +3.3 | -6.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 27% | 27% | 26% | 21% | -1.7 | +0.3 | +21.0 | -19.6 |
| East 2 | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 24% | 24% | 42% | 10% | +33.4 | -33.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| East 3 | Draw | 50% | 6% | 36% | 9% | -3.1 | -2.3 | +6.5 | -1.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,500 | 45% | 5% | 43% | 8% | -3.4 | -0.6 | +7.2 | -3.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 39% | 5% | 49% | 7% | +2.4 | -5.1 | +2.3 | +0.4 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 40% | 3% | 50% | 6% | +6.4 | +19.1 | -23.3 | -2.2 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 54% | 9% | 30% | 8% | -2.1 | -0.6 | -31.4 | +34.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 2,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 54% | 10% | 13% | 23% | +10.0 | -5.7 | +0.6 | -4.9 |
| South 1 | Draw | 67% | 7% | 11% | 15% | +5.3 | -1.0 | -1.7 | -2.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 2,000 | 74% | 5% | 9% | 12% | -2.7 | -4.3 | -3.2 | +10.2 |
| South 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 3,900 | 73% | 4% | 7% | 16% | -4.1 | +11.6 | -4.1 | -3.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 68% | 8% | 8% | 17% | +3.9 | -8.8 | +3.9 | +1.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,800 from Sasaki Hisato | 75% | 2% | 7% | 15% | -0.8 | +0.5 | +28.5 | -28.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 75% | 2% | 18% | 6% | -19.8 | +4.2 | +48.6 | -32.9 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 23% | 0% | 76% | 0% | -8.0 | +0.9 | +23.0 | -15.9 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 3% | 0% | 97% | 0% | -8.3 | +0.5 | -1.1 | +8.9 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +1.1 | +0.1 | +1.6 | -2.8 |