Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/15 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+80.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 3 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Hisato Sasaki, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +49.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 24% | 25% | 23% | +0.4 | +2.9 | +5.2 | -8.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 26% | 26% | 29% | 19% | -2.5 | -0.6 | +20.2 | -17.1 |
| East 2 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 23% | 24% | 43% | 11% | +34.3 | -33.7 | -0.8 | +0.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 5% | 37% | 8% | -2.6 | -0.3 | +4.4 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,500 | 45% | 6% | 41% | 8% | -3.1 | -1.3 | +8.1 | -3.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 5% | 48% | 7% | +1.0 | -5.0 | +1.9 | +2.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 40% | 4% | 50% | 6% | +5.8 | +18.6 | -21.6 | -2.7 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 52% | 10% | 31% | 7% | +1.2 | -0.1 | -32.4 | +31.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 56% | 11% | 12% | 21% | +8.0 | -6.3 | -0.3 | -1.4 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 68% | 8% | 9% | 16% | +5.5 | -2.1 | -1.2 | -2.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 2,000 | 73% | 6% | 8% | 13% | -3.0 | -2.8 | -2.5 | +8.3 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 3,900 | 71% | 5% | 7% | 16% | -2.4 | +10.3 | -4.6 | -3.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 69% | 8% | 7% | 16% | +3.1 | -6.3 | +4.5 | -1.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,800 from Hisato Sasaki | 76% | 2% | 8% | 13% | -1.3 | -0.9 | +28.2 | -26.0 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 75% | 2% | 17% | 6% | -20.7 | +3.7 | +49.0 | -31.9 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 22% | 0% | 77% | 1% | -8.1 | +1.5 | +22.8 | -16.2 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 2% | 0% | 98% | 0% | -7.5 | +0.5 | -1.4 | +8.4 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +1.1 | 0.0 | +1.9 | -2.9 |