Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/16 Game 1
Seiichi Kondo finished 1st (+70.7pt). The game was decided in East 1, 2 honba: Seiichi Kondo tsumo 18,000, which moved Seiichi Kondo's expected points by +48.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | +2.5 | -4.0 | -2.9 | +4.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 22% | 25% | 27% | +5.5 | -2.0 | -2.6 | -0.9 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 18,000 | 30% | 21% | 22% | 27% | +48.0 | -16.6 | -15.7 | -15.8 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 72% | 8% | 9% | 11% | -1.5 | +20.1 | -18.6 | -0.1 |
| East 2 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,900 from Ken Sonoda | 71% | 14% | 5% | 10% | +2.0 | +4.7 | -5.2 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,000 | 72% | 15% | 3% | 9% | -0.8 | -7.0 | -3.1 | +10.8 |
| East 3 | Seiichi Kondo ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 73% | 12% | 3% | 12% | +5.0 | -0.4 | -5.2 | +0.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 78% | 9% | 2% | 11% | +4.9 | -1.0 | +1.0 | -5.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,000 | 86% | 7% | 1% | 6% | -4.2 | -4.0 | -2.7 | +10.9 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 85% | 6% | 1% | 8% | -2.2 | -12.8 | -3.6 | +18.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 82% | 0% | 1% | 17% | -2.6 | -2.2 | +2.8 | +1.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 1,500 | 78% | 0% | 1% | 20% | +9.0 | +1.1 | -5.3 | -4.7 |
| South 4 | Seiichi Kondo ron 1,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 91% | 0% | 0% | 9% | +4.7 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -4.2 |