Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/19 Game 1
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+71.9pt). The game was decided in South 2: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +55.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Jun Murakami tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -13.7 | -8.8 | +24.8 | -2.3 |
| East 2 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 18% | 43% | 23% | +33.6 | -17.3 | -6.9 | -9.4 |
| East 3 | Jun Murakami tsumo 12,000 | 39% | 9% | 35% | 17% | -12.8 | -7.6 | +29.9 | -9.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 5% | 64% | 10% | +0.1 | +4.3 | -1.8 | -2.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 9,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 22% | 5% | 63% | 9% | -3.4 | -20.5 | -2.9 | +26.8 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 19% | 2% | 59% | 20% | +2.4 | +16.7 | +5.4 | -24.6 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Kazunori Takizawa | 20% | 4% | 69% | 7% | -2.7 | +10.9 | +4.3 | -12.6 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000 | 14% | 6% | 76% | 4% | -18.3 | +55.6 | -22.0 | -15.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 47% | 43% | 2% | -10.4 | +31.6 | -16.5 | -4.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 86% | 13% | 1% | -2.4 | +9.6 | -4.0 | -3.2 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 93% | 7% | 0% | -2.7 | -2.2 | +3.3 | +1.6 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 93% | 6% | 0% | +35.1 | -0.8 | -26.2 | -8.2 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 99% | 0% | 0% | +5.5 | +0.9 | -3.6 | -2.8 |