Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/22 Game 1
Seiichi Kondo finished 1st (+68.5pt). The game was decided in East 4, 4 honba: Seiichi Kondo tsumo 18,000, which moved Seiichi Kondo's expected points by +46.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 5,200 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -8.0 | +14.4 | -1.8 | -4.5 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,300 from Mari Takamiya | 19% | 36% | 23% | 22% | -3.1 | -2.0 | +3.1 | +2.0 |
| East 3 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 34% | 24% | 23% | -11.3 | -13.4 | +34.0 | -9.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 11% | 21% | 52% | 16% | -23.4 | -1.1 | +25.5 | -0.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 11% | 77% | 10% | +2.3 | +0.9 | -2.1 | -1.0 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 12% | 77% | 9% | -0.8 | -2.1 | -2.1 | +5.0 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 18,000 | 3% | 12% | 73% | 12% | -10.1 | -17.8 | -18.9 | +46.9 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 2,000 | 2% | 6% | 45% | 48% | -4.4 | +9.6 | -1.6 | -3.6 |
| South 1 | Seiichi Kondo ron 3,900 from Mari Takamiya | 1% | 9% | 45% | 45% | -6.8 | -1.0 | -3.2 | +11.0 |
| South 2 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 6% | 36% | 59% | -1.1 | -8.4 | -5.3 | +14.7 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 20% | 80% | +0.2 | -0.2 | -5.6 | +5.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 7% | 93% | -1.1 | -0.7 | +0.1 | +1.7 |