Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/23 Game 1
Kanako Maruyama finished 1st (+63.5pt). The game was decided in East 4, 3 honba: Kanako Maruyama tsumo 12,000, which moved Kanako Maruyama's expected points by +31.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +2.3 | +6.4 | -6.2 | -2.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 28% | 21% | 24% | +2.2 | +0.3 | -4.2 | +1.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 29% | 18% | 25% | -17.1 | +28.7 | -6.2 | -5.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 53% | 13% | 19% | +2.1 | -5.0 | +4.3 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki | 17% | 48% | 17% | 17% | -0.9 | +0.4 | +13.5 | -13.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 48% | 23% | 13% | -1.4 | +0.7 | -3.8 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 50% | 20% | 15% | -7.7 | +31.9 | -5.6 | -18.6 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 84% | 8% | 2% | +28.5 | -8.2 | -11.6 | -8.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 2,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 18% | 74% | 6% | 2% | -2.5 | +2.7 | +5.4 | -5.6 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Takaharu Ooi | 13% | 79% | 7% | 2% | +7.4 | 0.0 | -7.9 | +0.5 |
| South 3 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 13% | 82% | 4% | 1% | -14.7 | +6.3 | -3.8 | +12.2 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 96% | 0% | 3% | +3.8 | -0.9 | -3.5 | +0.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 5,800 from Takaharu Ooi | 3% | 95% | 0% | 2% | -1.1 | -1.9 | -22.1 | +25.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 1,300 from Makoto Sawazaki | 2% | 92% | 0% | 6% | +6.1 | +3.7 | -0.3 | -9.5 |